Stochastic processes for modelling bridge deterioration
- Publication Type:
- Conference Proceeding
- Futures in Mechanics of Structures and Materials - Proceedings of the 20th Australasian Conference on the Mechanics of Structures and Materials, ACMSM20, 2008, pp. 533 - 538
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Traditionally, bridge management systems were designed using Markov chain models. Recently, researchers applied the gamma process successfully to structural deterioration problems. The stochastic process captures the temporal variability of degradation, and has been applied to a range of problems in structures. We report on a study for the modelling of the condition of bridges in the state of NSW. The study encompasses large amounts of data spanning more than 15 years. We argue for the applicability of the gamma process and other stochastic processes. While the gamma process has been adopted in the past decade on grounds of mathematical tractability and physical motivation, we also observe another distribution for the deterioration at different times. The finding promotes the stochastic process modelling direction taken in the past decade and brings forth new models for the time-dependent reliability analysis of bridges. © 2009 Taylor & Francis Group, London.
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