Despite association, the acute:chronic work load ratio does not predict non-contact injury in elite footballers

Fanchini, M; Rampinini, E; Riggio, M; Coutts, AJ; Pecci, C; McCall, A

Despite association, the acute:chronic work load ratio does not predict non-contact injury in elite footballers

Fanchini, M

Rampinini, E Riggio, M Coutts, AJ

Pecci, C McCall, A

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Science and Medicine in Football, 2018, 2 (2), pp. 108 - 114
Issue Date:: 2018-04-03

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Fanchini, M https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7398-5443	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Rampinini, E	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Riggio, M	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Coutts, AJ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1782-7691	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Pecci, C	en_US
dc.contributor.author	McCall, A	en_US
dc.date.issued	2018-04-03	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Science and Medicine in Football, 2018, 2 (2), pp. 108 - 114	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	2473-3938	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/134485
dc.description.abstract	© 2018, © 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Purpose: To examine association and prediction of load-based markers (rate of perceived exertion) with non-contact injuries. Materials and methods: Thirty-four elite Italian football players (age 26 ± 5 y, height 182 ± 5 cm, body mass 78 ± 4 kg) participated in a 3-seasons prospective study. Markers examined were: RPE, exposure, weekly load, week-to-week load change, cumulative 2, 3, 4 WL, acute:chronic 1:2 (acute:chronic2), 1:3 (acute:chronic3) and 1:4 (acute:chronic4) WL ratios. After checking multicollinearity between markers, a Generalized Estimating Equation analysis was used to examine association with a non-contact injury in the subsequent week. The associated markers were split into four groups based on 15th, 50th, 85th percentile to compare injury risk (IR) in different zones. Prediction was examined with receiver operating characteristic curve, area under the curve (AUC) and Youden index. Results: IR increased when acute:chronic2 of 1.00–1.20, >1.20 were compared to <0.81 (odds ratio (OR), 90% confidence interval (CI): 1.6, 0.79–3.29; 2.2, 1.03–4.74). IR increased when comparing acute:chronic3 of 1.01–1.23, >1.23 vs. <0.80 (OR, 90% CI: 1.9, 0.9–3.8; 2.5, 1.2–5.4). IR increased when comparing acute:chronic4 of 0.78–1.02, 1.02–1.26, >1.26 vs. <0.78 (OR, 90% CI: 2.4, 1.4–3.9; 3.3, 1.6–6.6; 3.5, 1.7–7.4). The AUC ≤0.60 for all markers and Youden Index (close to 0) showed poor prediction. Conclusion: Acute:chronic markers showed association however with poor prediction ability.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Science and Medicine in Football	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1080/24733938.2018.1429014	en_US
dc.title	Despite association, the acute:chronic work load ratio does not predict non-contact injury in elite footballers	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	2	en_US
utslib.for	1106 Human Movement and Sports Sciences	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Health
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CHSP - Health Services and Practice
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CHT - Health Technologies
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.issue	2	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	2	en_US

Abstract:

© 2018, © 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Purpose: To examine association and prediction of load-based markers (rate of perceived exertion) with non-contact injuries. Materials and methods: Thirty-four elite Italian football players (age 26 ± 5 y, height 182 ± 5 cm, body mass 78 ± 4 kg) participated in a 3-seasons prospective study. Markers examined were: RPE, exposure, weekly load, week-to-week load change, cumulative 2, 3, 4 WL, acute:chronic 1:2 (acute:chronic2), 1:3 (acute:chronic3) and 1:4 (acute:chronic4) WL ratios. After checking multicollinearity between markers, a Generalized Estimating Equation analysis was used to examine association with a non-contact injury in the subsequent week. The associated markers were split into four groups based on 15th, 50th, 85th percentile to compare injury risk (IR) in different zones. Prediction was examined with receiver operating characteristic curve, area under the curve (AUC) and Youden index. Results: IR increased when acute:chronic2 of 1.00–1.20, >1.20 were compared to <0.81 (odds ratio (OR), 90% confidence interval (CI): 1.6, 0.79–3.29; 2.2, 1.03–4.74). IR increased when comparing acute:chronic3 of 1.01–1.23, >1.23 vs. <0.80 (OR, 90% CI: 1.9, 0.9–3.8; 2.5, 1.2–5.4). IR increased when comparing acute:chronic4 of 0.78–1.02, 1.02–1.26, >1.26 vs. <0.78 (OR, 90% CI: 2.4, 1.4–3.9; 3.3, 1.6–6.6; 3.5, 1.7–7.4). The AUC ≤0.60 for all markers and Youden Index (close to 0) showed poor prediction. Conclusion: Acute:chronic markers showed association however with poor prediction ability.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/134485