Hybrid wind energy forecasting and analysis system based on divide and conquer scheme: A case study in China
- Publication Type:
- Journal Article
- Citation:
- Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 222 pp. 942 - 959
- Issue Date:
- 2019-06-10
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© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Wind energy, acknowledged as a promising form of renewable energy and the fastest-growing clean method for electricity generation, has attracted considerable attention from many scientists and researchers in recent decades. However, wind energy forecasting is still a challenging task owing to its inherent features of non-linearity and randomness. Therefore, this study develops a hybrid wind energy forecasting and analysis system including a deterministic forecasting module and an uncertainty analysis module to mitigate the challenges in existing studies. In particular, these challenges are as follows: (1) It is difficult to guarantee that the data characteristics underlying the time series are effectively extracted; (2) in the modeling of each subseries, i.e., when the original data is decomposed into some time series, forecasting accuracy and stability are not simultaneously considered, and thus, they are not properly modeled; and (3) the best function to perform a deterministic forecasting and uncertainty analysis based on the forecaster of each subseries is unknown. The developed hybrid system consists of three steps: First, data preprocessing is conducted to capture and mine the main feature of the wind energy time series and weaken the noises’ negative effects; second, multi-objective optimization is proposed to achieve the forecasting of each subseries with improvements in accuracy and stability; finally, search for the best function, which obtains the deterministic forecasting and uncertainty analysis results using an optimized extreme learning machine based on different modeling objectives, is conducted. Experimental simulations are performed using data from three sites in a real wind farm, which indicate that the developed system has a better performance in engineering applications than that of other methods. Furthermore, this system could not only be used as an effective tool for wind energy deterministic forecasting and uncertainty analysis, but also for other engineering application areas in the future.
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