A short-run econometric model of the Japanese wool textile industry

Carland, JD; Pagan, AR

A short-run econometric model of the Japanese wool textile industry

Carland, JD Pagan, AR

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Publisher:: Wiley
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: The Economic Record, 1979, 55 (4), pp. 317 - 327
Issue Date:: 1979-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Carland, JD	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Pagan, AR	en_US
dc.date.issued	1979-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	The Economic Record, 1979, 55 (4), pp. 317 - 327	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0013-0249	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/13948
dc.description.abstract	Few models of the Japanese wool textile industry have been constructed, despite the importance of the Japanese as the largest purchasers of Australian wool on a single-country basis. This paper constructs a twenty-five equation, monthly model explaining the flow of material through the various processing stages of the industry from greasy wool imports to fabric production. The model was estimated over the period 1968 to 1976 and its performance in dynamic simulations over the same period was good until 1975 when a cartel was implemented. Forecasts outside the sample period for 1977 were satisfactory. The model demonstrates the role of stocks within the industry and concludes that there exists a lengthy lag in the response of wool purchases to changes in Japan's economic activity	en_US
dc.publisher	Wiley	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	The Economic Record	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Economics	en_US
dc.title	A short-run econometric model of the Japanese wool textile industry	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	4	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	55	en_US
utslib.for	1403 Econometrics	en_US
utslib.for	14 Economics	en_US
utslib.for	15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.consider-herdc	false	en_US
pubs.issue	4	en_US
pubs.volume	55	en_US

Abstract:

Few models of the Japanese wool textile industry have been constructed, despite the importance of the Japanese as the largest purchasers of Australian wool on a single-country basis. This paper constructs a twenty-five equation, monthly model explaining the flow of material through the various processing stages of the industry from greasy wool imports to fabric production. The model was estimated over the period 1968 to 1976 and its performance in dynamic simulations over the same period was good until 1975 when a cartel was implemented. Forecasts outside the sample period for 1977 were satisfactory. The model demonstrates the role of stocks within the industry and concludes that there exists a lengthy lag in the response of wool purchases to changes in Japan's economic activity

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/13948