Energy-Water-Food Security Challenge for Middle-East and North Africa (MENA)
- Publication Type:
- Thesis
- Issue Date:
- 2020
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In the backdrop of emerging concerns about Energy-Water-Food (EWF) security, this research analyses the impact of alternative developmental policy pathways (Scenarios) on EWF security and economic and social outcomes, for the period 2015-2050, for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region – a region typified by highly uneven distribution of energy endowments, acutely scarce resources, rather limited arable land, and high degree of political volatility. These impacts are assessed in terms of seventeen selected attributes, grouped into four areas of interest – energy security, water security, food security, and economic and social outcomes. Five Scenarios considered in this research, namely, Business-as-Usual (BAU), Energy-oriented (ESC), Water-oriented (WSC), Food-oriented (FSC), and EWF Nexus-oriented (NSC) – reflect alternative sets of technological, economic and social developmental trajectories – as relevant for each country included in this research. A specifically designed Input-Output framework – incorporating flexible (nested) production functions, factor substitution possibilities through price mechanism, and with high degrees of sectoral disaggregation – is employed to analyse the medium-to-long term impacts of alternative scenarios. Analysis suggests that while the BAU scenario (representing country policy trends) will lead to highly precipitous water security outcomes for most countries considered, and considerably worsened food security outcomes for some countries. Analysis also suggests that while domain-special scenarios (e.g., ESC) will have a perceptibly positive outcome for the domain (i.e., energy), but detrimental outcomes for other domains (e.g., water, food, economic and social). The research also reveals that improvements in water security will come at the expense of economic and social outcomes. Overall, the NSC scenario provides modest outcomes for most domains, although with sharp contrasts across countries – thus demonstrating the ‘value’ of nexus-informed policy considerations. The analyses were undertaken in this research – it is contended – provides innately useful insights into the trade-offs that policymakers in various countries can consider while develop resource, economic and social policies. Further, while this research has been undertaken for the MENA region, the analytical framework developed, and the overall ‘philosophy’ adopted to develop a more nuanced perspective on EWF security challenge should serve as a robust platform for other countries as they endeavour to develop policy prescriptions to redress the EWF security challenges. Therein resides yet another significant feature of this research.
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