A Counterfactual Baseline for Assessing Future Environmental Impact: A Case Study of the Belt and Road Initiative

Li, JV; Cheong, TS; Shi, X

A Counterfactual Baseline for Assessing Future Environmental Impact: A Case Study of the Belt and Road Initiative

Li, JV Cheong, TS Shi, X

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Publisher:: Frontiers Media SA
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2021, 9, pp. 724095
Issue Date:: 2021-10-21

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Li, JV
dc.contributor.author	Cheong, TS
dc.contributor.author	Shi, X https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9653-7395
dc.date.accessioned	2021-12-02T06:52:35Z
dc.date.available	2021-12-02T06:52:35Z
dc.date.issued	2021-10-21
dc.identifier.citation	Frontiers in Environmental Science, 2021, 9, pp. 724095
dc.identifier.issn	2296-665X
dc.identifier.issn	2296-665X
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/152032
dc.description.abstract	<jats:p>The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the environment is an important but controversial topic. But assessing it faces a significant challenge for separating its policy impact from the overall effect of economic development that will also have environmental impacts. This paper attempts to provide an evolutionary and counterfactual baseline to evaluate the environmental impact of BRI, based on the distribution dynamics approach and the mobility probability plots (MPPs). Our estimation results suggest that while the majority of BRI economies will lower their emission levels compared with the world average, there are significant differences between BRI and non-BRI countrie’s emission patterns and dynamics. The majority of non-BRI economies will have lower emission levels than their BRI counterparts in the absence of BRI policy, indicating that the difference in future emissions between BRI and non-BRI countries should not be completely attributed to the environmental impact of BRI. Instead, BRI should take measures to prevent certain countries from moving upwards energy intensity paths through policy intervention, international cooperation, and an inclusive project assessment process.</jats:p>
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Frontiers Media SA
dc.relation.ispartof	Frontiers in Environmental Science
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.3389/fenvs.2021.724095
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject	0502 Environmental Science and Management
dc.title	A Counterfactual Baseline for Assessing Future Environmental Impact: A Case Study of the Belt and Road Initiative
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	9
utslib.for	0502 Environmental Science and Management
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)/Australia-China Relations Institute
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.date.updated	2021-12-02T06:52:33Z
pubs.publication-status	Published online
pubs.volume	9

Abstract:

The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the environment is an important but controversial topic. But assessing it faces a significant challenge for separating its policy impact from the overall effect of economic development that will also have environmental impacts. This paper attempts to provide an evolutionary and counterfactual baseline to evaluate the environmental impact of BRI, based on the distribution dynamics approach and the mobility probability plots (MPPs). Our estimation results suggest that while the majority of BRI economies will lower their emission levels compared with the world average, there are significant differences between BRI and non-BRI countrie’s emission patterns and dynamics. The majority of non-BRI economies will have lower emission levels than their BRI counterparts in the absence of BRI policy, indicating that the difference in future emissions between BRI and non-BRI countries should not be completely attributed to the environmental impact of BRI. Instead, BRI should take measures to prevent certain countries from moving upwards energy intensity paths through policy intervention, international cooperation, and an inclusive project assessment process.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/152032