Quantifying the Impact of Energy Shortage on Malaysia’s Energy Security Using a System Dynamics Approach

Shadman, S; Chin, CMM; Sakundarini, N; Yap, EH

Quantifying the Impact of Energy Shortage on Malaysia’s Energy Security Using a System Dynamics Approach

Shadman, S Chin, CMM Sakundarini, N Yap, EH

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Publisher:: Springer
Publication Type:: Conference Proceeding
Citation:: Recent Trends in Manufacturing and Materials Towards Industry 4.0, 2021, 46, pp. 143-154
Issue Date:: 2021-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Shadman, S
dc.contributor.author	Chin, CMM
dc.contributor.author	Sakundarini, N
dc.contributor.author	Yap, EH
dc.date	2020-08-06
dc.date.accessioned	2022-02-16T04:45:54Z
dc.date.available	2022-02-16T04:45:54Z
dc.date.issued	2021-01-01
dc.identifier.citation	Recent Trends in Manufacturing and Materials Towards Industry 4.0, 2021, 46, pp. 143-154
dc.identifier.isbn	9789811595042
dc.identifier.issn	2195-4356
dc.identifier.issn	2195-4364
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/154605
dc.description.abstract	Malaysia is currently a net exporter of fossil energy in the form of crude oil and refined petroleum contributing to the country’s economic development but not placing sufficient emphasis on its long-term environmental sustainability. The shortage of energy scenario can be a potent threat towards the economy as it will force prudent energy usage in different sectors. This will slow down economic growth and affect consumer market. This paper aims to investigate the impact of energy shortage on the dimensional indicators of Malaysia’s energy security (ES) that has been analyzed in three dimensions: energy availability, socio-economic and environmental sustainability. The shortage of energy by 30% is a hypothetical scenario designed to replicate how this will impact Malaysia’s overall energy security by discussing the dimensions of ES and its effects. A system dynamics approach is utilized to quantify this impact for a span of 5 years from 2015 to 2020 to analyze its effects on Malaysia’s ES. Findings showed that an increase in energy shortage by 30% will greatly increase energy costs, thus impairing its affordability. As a result, the energy consumption hits the lowest limit set by the simulation suggesting an energy insufficiency to fulfill the demands of all sectors. Energy shortage will lead to an economic growth deficit but will instill an awareness to be energy-prudent, hence increasing energy efficiency amongst user groups, which can be a positive impact.
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Springer
dc.relation.ispartof	Recent Trends in Manufacturing and Materials Towards Industry 4.0
dc.relation.ispartof	Innovative Manufacturing, Mechatronics and Materials Forum
dc.relation.ispartofseries	Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1007/978-981-15-9505-9_14
dc.rights	This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of a Book Chapter published in the book. Recent trends in manufacturing and materials towards Industry 4.0 : selected articles from iM3F 2020, Malaysia The final authenticated version is available online at: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-9505-9_14
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess
dc.title	Quantifying the Impact of Energy Shortage on Malaysia’s Energy Security Using a System Dynamics Approach
dc.type	Conference Proceeding
utslib.citation.volume	46
utslib.location.activity	Malaysia
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Provost
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Provost/TD School
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
pubs.consider-herdc	false
utslib.copyright.embargo	2023-01-01T00:00:00+1000Z
dc.date.updated	2022-02-16T04:45:52Z
pubs.finish-date	2020-08-06
pubs.place-of-publication	Singapore
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.start-date	2020-08-06
pubs.volume	46
dc.location	Singapore

Abstract:

Malaysia is currently a net exporter of fossil energy in the form of crude oil and refined petroleum contributing to the country’s economic development but not placing sufficient emphasis on its long-term environmental sustainability. The shortage of energy scenario can be a potent threat towards the economy as it will force prudent energy usage in different sectors. This will slow down economic growth and affect consumer market. This paper aims to investigate the impact of energy shortage on the dimensional indicators of Malaysia’s energy security (ES) that has been analyzed in three dimensions: energy availability, socio-economic and environmental sustainability. The shortage of energy by 30% is a hypothetical scenario designed to replicate how this will impact Malaysia’s overall energy security by discussing the dimensions of ES and its effects. A system dynamics approach is utilized to quantify this impact for a span of 5 years from 2015 to 2020 to analyze its effects on Malaysia’s ES. Findings showed that an increase in energy shortage by 30% will greatly increase energy costs, thus impairing its affordability. As a result, the energy consumption hits the lowest limit set by the simulation suggesting an energy insufficiency to fulfill the demands of all sectors. Energy shortage will lead to an economic growth deficit but will instill an awareness to be energy-prudent, hence increasing energy efficiency amongst user groups, which can be a positive impact.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/154605