The value-at-risk of time-series momentum and contrarian trading strategies

Infopro Digital Services Limited
Publication Type:
Journal Article
The Journal of Risk Model Validation, 2021, 15, (3), pp. 35-63
Issue Date:
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This paper not only provides a theoretical model for the value-at-risk of active and passive trading strategies but also discusses the substantial implications relevant to risk management. Our results suggest that, first, passive strategies are riskier than active trading strategies based on historical returns, such as momentum and contrarian strategies. Second, momentum (contrarian) trading is riskier in a bull (bear) market. Third, the value-at-risk of momentum (contrarian) strategies has a positive relation to the absolute value of the return autocorrelation, as well as a positive (negative) relation with the state of the market. Further, momentum trading strategies give a superior risk-adjusted performance compared with other strategies in international stock markets. Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved. You may share this content using our article tools. Copying this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - If you would like to purchase additional rights please email
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