Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions: Using Province Level Information

Carson, R; Sun, Y

Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions: Using Province Level Information

Carson, R Sun, Y

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Publisher:: Elsevier
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2008, 55 (3), pp. 229 - 247
Issue Date:: 2008-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Carson, R	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Sun, Y	en_US
dc.date.issued	2008-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2008, 55 (3), pp. 229 - 247	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0095-0696	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/15728
dc.description.abstract	Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2010 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial-level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This data set contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.	en_US
dc.publisher	Elsevier	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Journal of Environmental Economics and Management	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.jeem.2007.10.002	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Agricultural Economics & Policy	en_US
dc.title	Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions: Using Province Level Information	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	3	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	55	en_US
utslib.for	1402 Applied Economics	en_US
utslib.for	0502 Environmental Science and Management	en_US
utslib.for	1401 Economic Theory	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CENSOC - Study of Choice
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.consider-herdc	false	en_US
pubs.issue	3	en_US
pubs.volume	55	en_US

Abstract:

Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2010 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial-level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This data set contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10453/15728