Projected prevalence of car-sharing in four Asian-Pacific countries in 2030: What the experts think

Zhou, F; Zheng, Z; Whitehead, J; Perrons, R; Page, L; Washington, S

Projected prevalence of car-sharing in four Asian-Pacific countries in 2030: What the experts think

Zhou, F Zheng, Z Whitehead, J Perrons, R Page, L

Washington, S

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Publisher:: PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2017, 84, pp. 158-177
Issue Date:: 2017-11-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Zhou, F
dc.contributor.author	Zheng, Z
dc.contributor.author	Whitehead, J
dc.contributor.author	Perrons, R
dc.contributor.author	Page, L https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6020-9733
dc.contributor.author	Washington, S
dc.date.accessioned	2022-10-03T05:18:01Z
dc.date.available	2022-10-03T05:18:01Z
dc.date.issued	2017-11-01
dc.identifier.citation	Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2017, 84, pp. 158-177
dc.identifier.issn	0968-090X
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/162224
dc.description.abstract	This paper presents a “big-picture view” for policymakers and related stakeholders regarding the future development of car-sharing services. Car-sharing has the potential to significantly disrupt the personal mobility market. Thus, understanding their market penetration and implications is urgently needed. Previous studies in this domain have predominantly focused on the views, opinions, and preferences of consumers. In this study, we complement the current demand modelling research on car-sharing by applying an expert elicitation and aggregation technique that relies on transport experts’ opinions to investigate the role of car-sharing in the future. Specifically, based on the opinions of mobility suppliers, this research elicits experts’ judgment from across government, industry, and academia to gain insights into the future of car-sharing markets in four countries – Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. The analysis reveals that, from a mobility supplier's perspective, energy and vehicle prices will not have a statistically significant impact on the future adoption of car-sharing. The results also show that the more knowledgeable an expert is, the more pessimistic they are about the market penetration of car-sharing in 2016, and the more optimistic they are about the prevalence of car-sharing in 2030.
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
dc.relation.ispartof	Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.trc.2017.08.023
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subject	08 Information and Computing Sciences, 09 Engineering, 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
dc.subject.classification	Logistics & Transportation
dc.title	Projected prevalence of car-sharing in four Asian-Pacific countries in 2030: What the experts think
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	84
utslib.for	08 Information and Computing Sciences
utslib.for	09 Engineering
utslib.for	15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business/Economics Discipline
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access	*
dc.date.updated	2022-10-03T05:17:59Z
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	84

Abstract:

This paper presents a “big-picture view” for policymakers and related stakeholders regarding the future development of car-sharing services. Car-sharing has the potential to significantly disrupt the personal mobility market. Thus, understanding their market penetration and implications is urgently needed. Previous studies in this domain have predominantly focused on the views, opinions, and preferences of consumers. In this study, we complement the current demand modelling research on car-sharing by applying an expert elicitation and aggregation technique that relies on transport experts’ opinions to investigate the role of car-sharing in the future. Specifically, based on the opinions of mobility suppliers, this research elicits experts’ judgment from across government, industry, and academia to gain insights into the future of car-sharing markets in four countries – Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. The analysis reveals that, from a mobility supplier's perspective, energy and vehicle prices will not have a statistically significant impact on the future adoption of car-sharing. The results also show that the more knowledgeable an expert is, the more pessimistic they are about the market penetration of car-sharing in 2016, and the more optimistic they are about the prevalence of car-sharing in 2030.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/162224