An assessment of transmission dynamics via time-varying reproduction number of the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Fiji.

Lal, R; Huang, W; Li, Z; Prasad, S

An assessment of transmission dynamics via time-varying reproduction number of the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Fiji.

Lal, R Huang, W

Li, Z Prasad, S

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Publisher:: ROYAL SOC
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: R Soc Open Sci, 2022, 9, (8), pp. 220004
Issue Date:: 2022-08

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Lal, R
dc.contributor.author	Huang, W https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5190-7839
dc.contributor.author	Li, Z
dc.contributor.author	Prasad, S
dc.date.accessioned	2023-03-30T05:27:13Z
dc.date.available	2022-08-16
dc.date.available	2023-03-30T05:27:13Z
dc.date.issued	2022-08
dc.identifier.citation	R Soc Open Sci, 2022, 9, (8), pp. 220004
dc.identifier.issn	2054-5703
dc.identifier.issn	2054-5703
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/168844
dc.description.abstract	This study involves the estimation of a key epidemiological parameter for evaluating and monitoring the transmissibility of a disease. The time-varying reproduction number is the index for quantifying the transmissibility of infectious diseases. Accurate and timely estimation of the time-varying reproduction number is essential for optimizing non-pharmacological interventions and movement control orders during epidemics. The time-varying reproduction number for the second wave of the pandemic in Fiji is estimated using the popular EpiEstim R package and the publicly available COVID-19 data from 19 April 2021 to 1 December 2021. Our findings show that the non-pharmacological interventions and movement control orders introduced and enforced by the Fijian Government had a significant impact in preventing the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, the results show that many restrictions were either relaxed or eased when the time-varying reproduction number was below the threshold value of 1. The results have provided some information on the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic that could be used in the future as a guide for public health policymakers in Fiji. Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers would be helpful for continuous monitoring of the effectiveness of the current public health policies that are being implemented in Fiji.
dc.format	Electronic-eCollection
dc.language	eng
dc.publisher	ROYAL SOC
dc.relation.ispartof	R Soc Open Sci
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1098/rsos.220004
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.rights	© 2022 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
dc.title	An assessment of transmission dynamics via time-varying reproduction number of the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Fiji.
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	9
utslib.location.activity	England
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Provost
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Provost/TD School
utslib.copyright.status	recently_added	*
dc.date.updated	2023-03-30T05:27:12Z
pubs.issue	8
pubs.publication-status	Published online
pubs.volume	9
utslib.citation.issue	8

Abstract:

This study involves the estimation of a key epidemiological parameter for evaluating and monitoring the transmissibility of a disease. The time-varying reproduction number is the index for quantifying the transmissibility of infectious diseases. Accurate and timely estimation of the time-varying reproduction number is essential for optimizing non-pharmacological interventions and movement control orders during epidemics. The time-varying reproduction number for the second wave of the pandemic in Fiji is estimated using the popular EpiEstim R package and the publicly available COVID-19 data from 19 April 2021 to 1 December 2021. Our findings show that the non-pharmacological interventions and movement control orders introduced and enforced by the Fijian Government had a significant impact in preventing the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, the results show that many restrictions were either relaxed or eased when the time-varying reproduction number was below the threshold value of 1. The results have provided some information on the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic that could be used in the future as a guide for public health policymakers in Fiji. Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers would be helpful for continuous monitoring of the effectiveness of the current public health policies that are being implemented in Fiji.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/168844