Modelling Soil Erosion Hazards and Crop Diversity Changes Due to Climate Variation in Farming Systems at Central Highlands in Sri Lanka Using Geo- Informatics Technologies
- Publication Type:
- Thesis
- Issue Date:
- 2023
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Healthy farming systems play a vital role in sustainable food production. Soil erosion hazard is one of the prominent climate hazards that negatively affect farming systems, economies, and livelihoods. Spatial and temporal variations of soil erosion hazards are crucial in providing timely information on climate risk prediction, and managing risk in food production especially in hazards vulnerable tropical countries like Sri Lanka. This research investigates the soil erosion hazards vulnerability in different farming systems using a geo-informatics modelling approach with soil erosion, plant diversity, and rainfall variation to achieve sustainable food production. The study employed a time-series analysis of several variables, such as land-use land-cover (LULC) and crop diversity and rainfall variation, to detect the spatial variability of soil erosion in farming systems. Rain-use efficiency (RUE) and residual trend analysis (RESTREND) combined with a regression approach were applied to partition the soil erosion caused by human-induced and climate-induced land degradation. A novel matrix-based analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and weighted linear combination method with geo-informatics tools were proposed to identify ecologically viable and economically sound farming systems. Five models, including machine learning and deep learning models, were employed to predict soil erosion susceptibility. Results showed that soil erosion has increased from 9.08 Mg/ha/yr to 11.08 Mg/ha/yr from 2000 to 2019 in the Central Highlands of Sri Lanka. However, crop diversity had decreased in farming systems, namely low country (WL1a) and mid-country (WM1a) wet zone, in the western part of the Central Highlands. The RUE and RESTREND analyses revealed that climate-induced soil erosion is responsible for land degradation in these farming systems and threatens sustainable food production. The matrix-based AHP framework results indicated that more than 50% of farming systems demonstrated moderate status in terms of ecological and economic aspects. Results of prediction models indicate the WL1a and WM1b farming systems have a very-poor status and will worsen under the climate scenario RCP 8.5 by 2040. The thesis concluded that the farming systems in the western part of the Central Highlands are ecologically and economically degraded and highly vulnerable to future climate hazards. Therefore, priority should go to restoration and resilience development through adaptation and mitigation to improve the present condition and reduce future vulnerability. This study provides a comprehensive framework and implementation strategies to manage future soil erosion hazards for sustainable land management and food security. Finally, the implications of this research contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.
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