Studying the efficacy of isolation as a control strategy and elimination of tuberculosis in India: A mathematical model.

Bhadauria, AS; Dhungana, HN; Verma, V; Woodcock, S; Rai, T

Studying the efficacy of isolation as a control strategy and elimination of tuberculosis in India: A mathematical model.

Bhadauria, AS Dhungana, HN Verma, V Woodcock, S

Rai, T

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Publisher:: KEAI PUBLISHING LTD
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Infect Dis Model, 2023, 8, (2), pp. 458-470
Issue Date:: 2023-06

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Bhadauria, AS
dc.contributor.author	Dhungana, HN
dc.contributor.author	Verma, V
dc.contributor.author	Woodcock, S https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4903-3164
dc.contributor.author	Rai, T https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1610-8983
dc.date.accessioned	2024-02-12T23:19:20Z
dc.date.available	2023-03-25
dc.date.available	2024-02-12T23:19:20Z
dc.date.issued	2023-06
dc.identifier.citation	Infect Dis Model, 2023, 8, (2), pp. 458-470
dc.identifier.issn	2468-2152
dc.identifier.issn	2468-0427
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/175602
dc.description.abstract	India has the highest burden of both tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) based on the WHO Global TB Report 2019. Although the available data suggest that the total TB incidence has declined, the absolute number of new cases is still increasing. The number of reported TB cases in India in 2018 was 2.2 million, which was 1.5 million in 2009. About 47% increment in TB case notification in India within a decade shows a persistent public health problem. India contributes about 22% of the World's TB burden. Indian National Strategic Plan 2017-2025, sets out the government plans to eliminate TB by 2025. However, the milestone seems unrealistic to achieve the TB eradication goal by 2025. We developed a five-dimensional mathematical model to understand the TB dynamics in India and investigate the possibility of the earliest TB eradication time frame. The model stratifies the entire TB class into three different classes as drug-sensitive (DS), MDR, and isolated classes. The effective reproduction number, equilibrium points, and stability analysis of the model were carried out. This model predicts the total estimated cases of DS-TB and MDR-TB from 2018 to 2035 through numerical simulation and suggests that TB may be eliminated by 2035 in India if the treatment success rate could be achieved to 95%, by contact tracing and isolating at least 50% of MDR-TB.
dc.format	Electronic-eCollection
dc.language	eng
dc.publisher	KEAI PUBLISHING LTD
dc.relation.ispartof	Infect Dis Model
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.idm.2023.03.005
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject.classification	3202 Clinical sciences
dc.subject.classification	4202 Epidemiology
dc.title	Studying the efficacy of isolation as a control strategy and elimination of tuberculosis in India: A mathematical model.
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	8
utslib.location.activity	China
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.date.updated	2024-02-12T23:19:19Z
pubs.issue	2
pubs.publication-status	Published online
pubs.volume	8
utslib.citation.issue	2

Abstract:

India has the highest burden of both tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) based on the WHO Global TB Report 2019. Although the available data suggest that the total TB incidence has declined, the absolute number of new cases is still increasing. The number of reported TB cases in India in 2018 was 2.2 million, which was 1.5 million in 2009. About 47% increment in TB case notification in India within a decade shows a persistent public health problem. India contributes about 22% of the World's TB burden. Indian National Strategic Plan 2017-2025, sets out the government plans to eliminate TB by 2025. However, the milestone seems unrealistic to achieve the TB eradication goal by 2025. We developed a five-dimensional mathematical model to understand the TB dynamics in India and investigate the possibility of the earliest TB eradication time frame. The model stratifies the entire TB class into three different classes as drug-sensitive (DS), MDR, and isolated classes. The effective reproduction number, equilibrium points, and stability analysis of the model were carried out. This model predicts the total estimated cases of DS-TB and MDR-TB from 2018 to 2035 through numerical simulation and suggests that TB may be eliminated by 2035 in India if the treatment success rate could be achieved to 95%, by contact tracing and isolating at least 50% of MDR-TB.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/175602