Modeling the Impacts of Compound Dry and Hot Extremes on Australia's Wheat

Publication Type:
Thesis
Issue Date:
2024
Full metadata record
Compound dry and hot events, which refer to the simultaneous occurrence of drought and heat events in both time and space, have garnered increasing attention over recent decades due to their amplified detrimental effects on agricultural production compared to the impacts of either drought or heat alone. In Australia, rain-fed wheat production is particularly vulnerable, experiencing significant yield fluctuations or losses due to recurrent extreme weather conditions. While the effects of individual events like drought or heat on wheat yields have been extensively quantified, the compound dry and hot remains less understood. In this study, four interconnected studies were conducted: assessing the climate vulnerability of wheat in Australia, projecting future changes in frequency and intensity compound dry-hot events, quantifying their contribution to yield variability, and analyzing their relationships with climate drivers such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Findings indicate that compound events amplify yield variability markedly, with projections showing increased occurrence under future climate change. Strategies such as adjusting sowing times and cultivar selection emerge as effective mitigation measures. Integrating these insights into climate risk management frameworks is essential for enhancing agricultural resilience in the face of changing climate conditions.
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