China’s 2060 Carbon Neutrality Pledge: The Effects of Changes in China’s Natural Gas Consumption on the Australian Economy

Sung, Jinyong

China’s 2060 Carbon Neutrality Pledge: The Effects of Changes in China’s Natural Gas Consumption on the Australian Economy

Sung, Jinyong

Permalink

Publication Type:: Thesis
Issue Date:: 2025

Open Access

Copyright Clearance Process

Recently Added
In Progress
Open Access

This item is open access.

Adobe PDF

Download thesisAdobe PDF (4.5 MB)

View statistics

Full metadata record

Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Sung, Jinyong
dc.date.accessioned	2026-06-15T02:10:41Z
dc.date.available	2026-06-15T02:10:41Z
dc.date.issued	2025
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/195356
dc.description	University of Technology Sydney. Institute for Sustainable Futures.	en_US.UTF-8
dc.description.abstract	China’s natural gas (NG) market is undergoing a structural transformation driven by its 2060 carbon neutrality target and market liberalisation. These changes have profound implications for Australia, China’s largest NG supplier, yet integrated research on their combined effects remains limited. This study addresses the gap by applying an interdisciplinary approach that combines advanced big data analytics with econometric modelling to forecast short- and long-term NG market trends and assess their economic impacts on Australia. The study first identifies key drivers of China’s NG consumption—temperature, coal and gas prices, import volumes, and infrastructure—and then uses these drivers to build short- and long-term forecasts of the NG consumption. Short-term forecasts show infrastructure as the most critical determinant influencing predicted demand, while long-term projections indicate that achieving genuine carbon neutrality requires a more radical transition. Lastly, this study’s economic impact assessment using static and dynamic Input–Output models shows that Australia’s NG and coal industries will face major setbacks, with ripple effects on sectors like iron ore mining. Dynamic modelling warns of prolonged downturns; moreover, renewable energy-focused stimulus policies create positive spillovers. To ensure sustainable growth, Australia must adopt strategic renewable-focused policies supported by tax incentives and clean energy investments.	en_US.UTF-8
dc.format	Thesis (PhD)
dc.language.iso	en_US	en_US.UTF-8
dc.relation	https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/195356/1/thesis.pdf
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights	The author owns the copyright in this thesis including all reproduction and reuse rights for the work. The work may not be altered without the permission of the copyright owner. Attribution is essential when quoting or paraphrasing from this thesis.
dc.rights	© 2025 Jinyong (Edward) Sung
dc.rights	au.edu.uts.lib/cph
dc.title	China’s 2060 Carbon Neutrality Pledge: The Effects of Changes in China’s Natural Gas Consumption on the Australian Economy	en_US.UTF-8
dc.type	Thesis
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*

Abstract:

China’s natural gas (NG) market is undergoing a structural transformation driven by its 2060 carbon neutrality target and market liberalisation. These changes have profound implications for Australia, China’s largest NG supplier, yet integrated research on their combined effects remains limited. This study addresses the gap by applying an interdisciplinary approach that combines advanced big data analytics with econometric modelling to forecast short- and long-term NG market trends and assess their economic impacts on Australia. The study first identifies key drivers of China’s NG consumption—temperature, coal and gas prices, import volumes, and infrastructure—and then uses these drivers to build short- and long-term forecasts of the NG consumption. Short-term forecasts show infrastructure as the most critical determinant influencing predicted demand, while long-term projections indicate that achieving genuine carbon neutrality requires a more radical transition. Lastly, this study’s economic impact assessment using static and dynamic Input–Output models shows that Australia’s NG and coal industries will face major setbacks, with ripple effects on sectors like iron ore mining. Dynamic modelling warns of prolonged downturns; moreover, renewable energy-focused stimulus policies create positive spillovers. To ensure sustainable growth, Australia must adopt strategic renewable-focused policies supported by tax incentives and clean energy investments.

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10453/195356