A market systems analysis of the U.S. Sport Utility Vehicle market considering frontal crash safety technology and policy.

Hoffenson, S; Frischknecht, BD; Papalambros, PY

A market systems analysis of the U.S. Sport Utility Vehicle market considering frontal crash safety technology and policy.

Hoffenson, S Frischknecht, BD

Papalambros, PY

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Accid Anal Prev, 2013, 50 pp. 943 - 954
Issue Date:: 2013-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Hoffenson, S	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Frischknecht, BD https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3365-2315	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Papalambros, PY	en_US
dc.date.available	2012-07-20	en_US
dc.date.issued	2013-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Accid Anal Prev, 2013, 50 pp. 943 - 954	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/23437
dc.description.abstract	Active safety features and adjustments to the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) consumer-information crash tests have the potential to decrease the number of serious traffic injuries each year, according to previous studies. However, literature suggests that risk reductions, particularly in the automotive market, are often accompanied by adjusted consumer risk tolerance, and so these potential safety benefits may not be fully realized due to changes in consumer purchasing or driving behavior. This article approaches safety in the new vehicle market, particularly in the Sport Utility Vehicle and Crossover Utility Vehicle segments, from a market systems perspective. Crash statistics and simulations are used to predict the effects of design and policy changes on occupant crash safety, and discrete choice experiments are conducted to estimate the values consumers place on vehicle attributes. These models are combined in a market simulation that forecasts how consumers respond to the available vehicle alternatives, resulting in predictions of the market share of each vehicle and how the change in fleet mixture influences societal outcomes including injuries, fuel consumption, and firm profits. The model is tested for a scenario where active safety features are implemented across the new vehicle fleet and a scenario where the U.S. frontal NCAP test speed is modified. While results exhibit evidence of consumer risk adjustment, they support adding active safety features and lowering the NCAP frontal test speed, as these changes are predicted to improve the welfare of both firms and society.	en_US
dc.language	eng	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Accid Anal Prev	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.aap.2012.07.021	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Logistics & Transportation	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Humans	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Bayes Theorem	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Equipment Design	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Choice Behavior	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Accident Prevention	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Accidents, Traffic	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Consumer Product Safety	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Automobiles	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	United States	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Female	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Male	en_US
dc.title	A market systems analysis of the U.S. Sport Utility Vehicle market considering frontal crash safety technology and policy.	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	50	en_US
utslib.location.activity	England	en_US
utslib.for	1505 Marketing	en_US
utslib.for	1117 Public Health and Health Services	en_US
utslib.for	1507 Transportation and Freight Services	en_US
utslib.for	1701 Psychology	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CENSOC - Study of Choice
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	50	en_US

Abstract:

Active safety features and adjustments to the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) consumer-information crash tests have the potential to decrease the number of serious traffic injuries each year, according to previous studies. However, literature suggests that risk reductions, particularly in the automotive market, are often accompanied by adjusted consumer risk tolerance, and so these potential safety benefits may not be fully realized due to changes in consumer purchasing or driving behavior. This article approaches safety in the new vehicle market, particularly in the Sport Utility Vehicle and Crossover Utility Vehicle segments, from a market systems perspective. Crash statistics and simulations are used to predict the effects of design and policy changes on occupant crash safety, and discrete choice experiments are conducted to estimate the values consumers place on vehicle attributes. These models are combined in a market simulation that forecasts how consumers respond to the available vehicle alternatives, resulting in predictions of the market share of each vehicle and how the change in fleet mixture influences societal outcomes including injuries, fuel consumption, and firm profits. The model is tested for a scenario where active safety features are implemented across the new vehicle fleet and a scenario where the U.S. frontal NCAP test speed is modified. While results exhibit evidence of consumer risk adjustment, they support adding active safety features and lowering the NCAP frontal test speed, as these changes are predicted to improve the welfare of both firms and society.

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10453/23437