Testing the Mechanisms of Structural Models: The Case of the Mickey Mantle Effect

American Economic Association
Publication Type:
Journal Article
American Economic Review, 2007, 97 (2), pp. 53 - 59
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A well-known method of validating econometric models (structural or otherwise) is to examine their performance in out-of-sample prediction. That is, given a change in the policy environment, do the key endogenous variables of the model move in ways that are in some sense reasonably close to the models forecasts? Unfortunately, however, as noted by Keane and Kenneth I. Wolpin (forthcoming), the examination of models predictive validity is not especially common in the microeconometrics literature.
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