Empirical results on the size distribution of business cycle phases

Di Guilmi, C; Gaffeo, E; Gallegati, M

Empirical results on the size distribution of business cycle phases

Di Guilmi, C

Gaffeo, E Gallegati, M

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, 333 (1-4), pp. 325 - 334
Issue Date:: 2004-02-15

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Di Guilmi, C https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7786-039X	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Gaffeo, E	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Gallegati, M	en_US
dc.date.issued	2004-02-15	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2004, 333 (1-4), pp. 325 - 334	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0378-4371	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/8247
dc.description.abstract	We study the size distribution of business cycles phases, that is expansions and contractions, for a sample of 16 industrialized countries over 120 years. We find that the best-fitting distribution for both expansions and contractions is Weibull, meaning that business cycles possess a characteristic scale. Furthermore, we discuss how parameters' estimates can be used to make inference on the probability a typical episode ends, that is on what economists call turning points. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.physa.2003.10.022	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Fluids & Plasmas	en_US
dc.title	Empirical results on the size distribution of business cycle phases	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	1-4	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	333	en_US
utslib.for	0105 Mathematical Physics	en_US
utslib.for	0102 Applied Mathematics	en_US
utslib.for	0206 Quantum Physics	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business/Economics Discipline
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.issue	1-4	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	333	en_US

Abstract:

We study the size distribution of business cycles phases, that is expansions and contractions, for a sample of 16 industrialized countries over 120 years. We find that the best-fitting distribution for both expansions and contractions is Weibull, meaning that business cycles possess a characteristic scale. Furthermore, we discuss how parameters' estimates can be used to make inference on the probability a typical episode ends, that is on what economists call turning points. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/8247