Government policy uncertainty and stock prices: The case of Australia's uranium industry

Ferguson, A; Lam, P

Government policy uncertainty and stock prices: The case of Australia's uranium industry

Ferguson, A

Lam, P

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Energy Economics, 2016, 60 pp. 97 - 111
Issue Date:: 2016-11-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Ferguson, A https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0535-0643	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Lam, P https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5386-3705	en_US
dc.date.available	2016-08-09	en_US
dc.date.issued	2016-11-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Energy Economics, 2016, 60 pp. 97 - 111	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0140-9883	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/85368
dc.description.abstract	© 2016 Elsevier B.V. We investigate effects of government policy uncertainty on stock prices, reflecting tension between ‘private interest’ (economic benefits) and ‘public interest’ arguments over uranium mining. Using a sample of Australian-listed uranium firms from January 2005 through June 2008, we document a positive contemporaneous correlation between stock returns and volatility and two measures of government policy uncertainty, proxied by the spread in voters’ opinion polls between the two major political parties and a news-based sentiment index. Event-study results show significant stock price reactions to key uranium-related policy events, with cross-sectional variation in event returns predicted by models incorporating firm- and project-level characteristics. Our research design and findings may inform future research on the capital market effects of government policy uncertainty in other regulated industries.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Energy Economics	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.026	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Energy	en_US
dc.title	Government policy uncertainty and stock prices: The case of Australia's uranium industry	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	60	en_US
utslib.for	1402 Applied Economics	en_US
utslib.for	0906 Electrical and Electronic Engineering	en_US
utslib.for	0913 Mechanical Engineering	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business/Accounting Discipline
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	60	en_US

Abstract:

© 2016 Elsevier B.V. We investigate effects of government policy uncertainty on stock prices, reflecting tension between ‘private interest’ (economic benefits) and ‘public interest’ arguments over uranium mining. Using a sample of Australian-listed uranium firms from January 2005 through June 2008, we document a positive contemporaneous correlation between stock returns and volatility and two measures of government policy uncertainty, proxied by the spread in voters’ opinion polls between the two major political parties and a news-based sentiment index. Event-study results show significant stock price reactions to key uranium-related policy events, with cross-sectional variation in event returns predicted by models incorporating firm- and project-level characteristics. Our research design and findings may inform future research on the capital market effects of government policy uncertainty in other regulated industries.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/85368