Impacts of ENSO on Philippine tropical cyclone activity

Corporal-Lodangco, IL; Leslie, LM; Lamb, PJ

Impacts of ENSO on Philippine tropical cyclone activity

Corporal-Lodangco, IL Leslie, LM

Lamb, PJ

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Journal of Climate, 2016, 29 (5), pp. 1877 - 1897
Issue Date:: 2016-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Corporal-Lodangco, IL	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Leslie, LM https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5616-2330	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Lamb, PJ	en_US
dc.date.issued	2016-01-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Journal of Climate, 2016, 29 (5), pp. 1877 - 1897	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0894-8755	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/118483
dc.description.abstract	© 2016 American Meteorological Society. This study investigates the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contribution to Philippine tropical cyclone (TC) variability, for a range of quarterly TC metrics. Philippine TC activity is found to depend on both ENSO quarter and phase. TC counts during El Niño phases differ significantly from neutral phases in all quarters, whereas neutral and La Niña phases differ only in January-March and July-September. Differences in landfalls between neutral and El Niño phases are significant in January-March and October-December and in January-March for neutral and La Niña phases. El Niño and La Niña landfalls are significantly different in April-June and October-December. Philippine neutral and El Niño TC genesis cover broader longitude-latitude ranges with similar long tracks, originating farther east in the western North Pacific. In El Niño phases, the mean eastward displacement of genesis locations and more recurving TCs reduce Philippine TC frequencies. Proximity of La Niña TC genesis to the Philippines and straight-moving tracks in April-June and October-December increase TC frequencies and landfalls. Neutral and El Niño accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) values are above average, except in April-June of El Niño phases. Above-average quarterly ACE in neutral years is due to increased TC frequencies, days, and intensities, whereas above-average El Niño ACE in July-September is due to increased TC days and intensities. Below-average La Niña ACE results from fewer TCs and shorter life cycles. Longer TC durations produce slightly above-average TC days in July-September El Niño phases. Fewer TCs than neutral years, as well as shorter TC durations, imply less TC days in La Niña phases. However, above-average TC days occur in October-December as a result of higher TC frequencies.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Journal of Climate	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00723.1	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences	en_US
dc.title	Impacts of ENSO on Philippine tropical cyclone activity	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	5	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	29	en_US
utslib.for	0909 Geomatic Engineering	en_US
utslib.for	0401 Atmospheric Sciences	en_US
utslib.for	0405 Oceanography	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.issue	5	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	29	en_US

Abstract:

© 2016 American Meteorological Society. This study investigates the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contribution to Philippine tropical cyclone (TC) variability, for a range of quarterly TC metrics. Philippine TC activity is found to depend on both ENSO quarter and phase. TC counts during El Niño phases differ significantly from neutral phases in all quarters, whereas neutral and La Niña phases differ only in January-March and July-September. Differences in landfalls between neutral and El Niño phases are significant in January-March and October-December and in January-March for neutral and La Niña phases. El Niño and La Niña landfalls are significantly different in April-June and October-December. Philippine neutral and El Niño TC genesis cover broader longitude-latitude ranges with similar long tracks, originating farther east in the western North Pacific. In El Niño phases, the mean eastward displacement of genesis locations and more recurving TCs reduce Philippine TC frequencies. Proximity of La Niña TC genesis to the Philippines and straight-moving tracks in April-June and October-December increase TC frequencies and landfalls. Neutral and El Niño accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) values are above average, except in April-June of El Niño phases. Above-average quarterly ACE in neutral years is due to increased TC frequencies, days, and intensities, whereas above-average El Niño ACE in July-September is due to increased TC days and intensities. Below-average La Niña ACE results from fewer TCs and shorter life cycles. Longer TC durations produce slightly above-average TC days in July-September El Niño phases. Fewer TCs than neutral years, as well as shorter TC durations, imply less TC days in La Niña phases. However, above-average TC days occur in October-December as a result of higher TC frequencies.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/118483