Modelling wheat yield change under CO<inf>2</inf> increase, heat and water stress in relation to plant available water capacity in eastern Australia

Wang, B; Liu, DL; Asseng, S; Macadam, I; Yu, Q

Modelling wheat yield change under CO<inf>2</inf> increase, heat and water stress in relation to plant available water capacity in eastern Australia

Wang, B

Liu, DL Asseng, S Macadam, I Yu, Q

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: European Journal of Agronomy, 2017, 90 pp. 152 - 161
Issue Date:: 2017-10-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Wang, B https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6422-5802	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Liu, DL	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Asseng, S	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Macadam, I	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Yu, Q https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6950-1821	en_US
dc.date.issued	2017-10-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	European Journal of Agronomy, 2017, 90 pp. 152 - 161	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	1161-0301	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/125157
dc.description.abstract	© 2017 Elsevier B.V. Increasing heat and water stress are important threats to wheat growth in rain-fed conditions. Using climate scenario-based projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), we analysed changes in the probability of heat stress around wheat flowering and relative yield loss due to water stress at six locations in eastern Australia. As a consequence of warmer average temperatures, wheat flowering occurred earlier, but the probability of heat stress around flowering still increased by about 3.8%–6.2%. Simulated potential yield across six sites increased on average by about 2.5% regardless of the emission scenario. However, simulated water-limited yield tended to decline at wet and cool locations under future climate while increased at warm and dry locations. Soils with higher plant available water capacity (PAWC) showed a lower response of water-limited yield to rainfall changes except at very dry sites, which means soils with high PAWC were less affected by rainfall changes compared with soils with low PAWC. Our results also indicated that a drought stress index decreased with increasing PAWC and then stagnated at high PAWC. Under high emission scenario RCP8.5, drought stress was expected to decline or stay about the same due to elevated CO2 compensation effect. Therefore, to maintain or increase yield potential in response to the projected climate change, increasing cultivar tolerance to heat stress and improving crop management to reduce impacts of water stress on lower plant available water holding soils should be a priority for the genetic improvement of wheat in eastern Australia.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	European Journal of Agronomy	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.eja.2017.08.005	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Agronomy & Agriculture	en_US
dc.title	Modelling wheat yield change under CO<inf>2</inf> increase, heat and water stress in relation to plant available water capacity in eastern Australia	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	90	en_US
utslib.for	0703 Crop and Pasture Production	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Life Sciences
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Students
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	90	en_US

Abstract:

© 2017 Elsevier B.V. Increasing heat and water stress are important threats to wheat growth in rain-fed conditions. Using climate scenario-based projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), we analysed changes in the probability of heat stress around wheat flowering and relative yield loss due to water stress at six locations in eastern Australia. As a consequence of warmer average temperatures, wheat flowering occurred earlier, but the probability of heat stress around flowering still increased by about 3.8%–6.2%. Simulated potential yield across six sites increased on average by about 2.5% regardless of the emission scenario. However, simulated water-limited yield tended to decline at wet and cool locations under future climate while increased at warm and dry locations. Soils with higher plant available water capacity (PAWC) showed a lower response of water-limited yield to rainfall changes except at very dry sites, which means soils with high PAWC were less affected by rainfall changes compared with soils with low PAWC. Our results also indicated that a drought stress index decreased with increasing PAWC and then stagnated at high PAWC. Under high emission scenario RCP8.5, drought stress was expected to decline or stay about the same due to elevated CO2 compensation effect. Therefore, to maintain or increase yield potential in response to the projected climate change, increasing cultivar tolerance to heat stress and improving crop management to reduce impacts of water stress on lower plant available water holding soils should be a priority for the genetic improvement of wheat in eastern Australia.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/125157