Spatiotemporal changes in wheat phenology, yield and water use efficiency under the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projections in eastern Australia

Wang, B; Liu, DL; Asseng, S; Macadam, I; Yang, X; Yu, Q

Spatiotemporal changes in wheat phenology, yield and water use efficiency under the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projections in eastern Australia

Wang, B

Liu, DL Asseng, S Macadam, I Yang, X Yu, Q

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Climate Research, 2017, 72 (2), pp. 83 - 99
Issue Date:: 2017-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Wang, B https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6422-5802	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Liu, DL	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Asseng, S	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Macadam, I	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Yang, X	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Yu, Q https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6950-1821	en_US
dc.date.issued	2017-01-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Climate Research, 2017, 72 (2), pp. 83 - 99	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0936-577X	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/125713
dc.description.abstract	© Inter-Research 2017. The New South Wales (NSW) wheat belt is one of the most important regions for winter crops in Australia; however, its agricultural system is significantly affected by water stress and ongoing climate change. Statistically downscaled scenarios from 13 selected global climate models with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were combined with crop simulation models to simulate wheat productivity and water use. We projected that multi-model median yields could increase by 0.2% for RCP4.5 and 9.0% for RCP8.5 by 2061-2100. Although RCP4.5 showed a small decrease in median yield in the dry southwestern parts of the wheat belt, the higher CO2 concentration in RCP8.5 compensated some of the negative effects, resulting in 12.6% yield increase. Our results show that drier areas would benefit more from elevated CO2 than would the wetter areas. Without the increase in CO2 concentration, wheat yields decrease rapidly under RCP4.5 by 2061-2100 and much more so under RCP8.5 compared to the present. A decline in growing season length and a decrease in rainfall resulted in reduced crop water consumption. As a consequence, simulated evapotranspiration decreased by 10.2% for RCP4.5 and 16.9% for RCP8.5 across the NSW wheat belt. Increasing yields combined with decreasing evapotranspiration resulted in a simulated increase in water use efficiency by 9.9% for RCP4.5 and 29.7% for RCP8.5. Wheat production in water-limited, low-yielding environments appears to be less negatively impacted or in some cases even positively affected under future climate and CO2 changes, compared to other growing environments in the world.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Climate Research	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.3354/cr01458	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences	en_US
dc.title	Spatiotemporal changes in wheat phenology, yield and water use efficiency under the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projections in eastern Australia	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	2	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	72	en_US
utslib.for	0401 Atmospheric Sciences	en_US
utslib.for	0502 Environmental Science and Management	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Life Sciences
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Students
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.issue	2	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	72	en_US

Abstract:

© Inter-Research 2017. The New South Wales (NSW) wheat belt is one of the most important regions for winter crops in Australia; however, its agricultural system is significantly affected by water stress and ongoing climate change. Statistically downscaled scenarios from 13 selected global climate models with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were combined with crop simulation models to simulate wheat productivity and water use. We projected that multi-model median yields could increase by 0.2% for RCP4.5 and 9.0% for RCP8.5 by 2061-2100. Although RCP4.5 showed a small decrease in median yield in the dry southwestern parts of the wheat belt, the higher CO2 concentration in RCP8.5 compensated some of the negative effects, resulting in 12.6% yield increase. Our results show that drier areas would benefit more from elevated CO2 than would the wetter areas. Without the increase in CO2 concentration, wheat yields decrease rapidly under RCP4.5 by 2061-2100 and much more so under RCP8.5 compared to the present. A decline in growing season length and a decrease in rainfall resulted in reduced crop water consumption. As a consequence, simulated evapotranspiration decreased by 10.2% for RCP4.5 and 16.9% for RCP8.5 across the NSW wheat belt. Increasing yields combined with decreasing evapotranspiration resulted in a simulated increase in water use efficiency by 9.9% for RCP4.5 and 29.7% for RCP8.5. Wheat production in water-limited, low-yielding environments appears to be less negatively impacted or in some cases even positively affected under future climate and CO2 changes, compared to other growing environments in the world.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/125713