Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century

Wang, B; Liu, DL; O'Leary, GJ; Asseng, S; Macadam, I; Lines-Kelly, R; Yang, X; Clark, A; Crean, J; Sides, T; Xing, H; Mi, C; Yu, Q

Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century

Wang, B

Liu, DL O'Leary, GJ Asseng, S Macadam, I Lines-Kelly, R Yang, X Clark, A Crean, J Sides, T Xing, H Mi, C Yu, Q

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Global Change Biology, 2018, 24 (6), pp. 2403 - 2415
Issue Date:: 2018-06-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Wang, B https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6422-5802	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Liu, DL	en_US
dc.contributor.author	O'Leary, GJ	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Asseng, S	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Macadam, I	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Lines-Kelly, R	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Yang, X	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Clark, A	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Crean, J	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Sides, T	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Xing, H	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Mi, C	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Yu, Q https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6950-1821	en_US
dc.date.available	2017-12-16	en_US
dc.date.issued	2018-06-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Global Change Biology, 2018, 24 (6), pp. 2403 - 2415	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	1354-1013	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/128249
dc.description.abstract	© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat-growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041–2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO2 emission scenario by 2081–2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat-growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Global Change Biology	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1111/gcb.14034	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Ecology	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Triticum	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Acclimatization	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Agriculture	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Food Supply	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Australia	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Climate Change	en_US
dc.title	Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	6	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	24	en_US
utslib.for	0699 Other Biological Sciences	en_US
utslib.for	0502 Environmental Science and Management	en_US
utslib.for	05 Environmental Sciences	en_US
utslib.for	06 Biological Sciences	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Life Sciences
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Students
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.issue	6	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	24	en_US

Abstract:

© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat-growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041–2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO2 emission scenario by 2081–2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat-growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/128249