Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts

Longo, M; Knox, RG; Levine, NM; Alves, LF; Bonal, D; Camargo, PB; Fitzjarrald, DR; Hayek, MN; Restrepo-Coupe, N; Saleska, SR; da Silva, R; Stark, SC; Tapajós, RP; Wiedemann, KT; Zhang, K; Wofsy, SC; Moorcroft, PR

Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts

Longo, M Knox, RG Levine, NM Alves, LF Bonal, D Camargo, PB Fitzjarrald, DR Hayek, MN Restrepo-Coupe, N

Saleska, SR da Silva, R Stark, SC Tapajós, RP Wiedemann, KT Zhang, K Wofsy, SC Moorcroft, PR

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: New Phytologist, 2018, 219 (3), pp. 914 - 931
Issue Date:: 2018-08-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Longo, M	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Knox, RG	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Levine, NM	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Alves, LF	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Bonal, D	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Camargo, PB	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Fitzjarrald, DR	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Hayek, MN	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Restrepo-Coupe, N https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3921-1772	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Saleska, SR	en_US
dc.contributor.author	da Silva, R	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Stark, SC	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Tapajós, RP	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Wiedemann, KT	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Zhang, K	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Wofsy, SC	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Moorcroft, PR	en_US
dc.date.available	2020-05-25T19:08:42Z
dc.date.issued	2018-08-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	New Phytologist, 2018, 219 (3), pp. 914 - 931	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0028-646X	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/128674
dc.description.abstract	© 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajós (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2–7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss > 20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km2) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	New Phytologist	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1111/nph.15185	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Plant Biology & Botany	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Carbon Dioxide	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Biomass	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Rain	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Plant Transpiration	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Geography	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Models, Theoretical	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Computer Simulation	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	South America	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Droughts	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Forests	en_US
dc.title	Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	3	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	219	en_US
utslib.for	0602 Ecology	en_US
utslib.for	0607 Plant Biology	en_US
utslib.for	0705 Forestry Sciences	en_US
utslib.for	06 Biological Sciences	en_US
utslib.for	07 Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
utslib.copyright.status	open_access
pubs.issue	3	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	219	en_US

Abstract:

© 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajós (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2–7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss > 20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km2) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/128674