Impacts of future climate change on water resource availability of eastern Australia: A case study of the Manning River basin

Zhang, H; Wang, B; Liu, DL; Zhang, M; Feng, P; Cheng, L; Yu, Q; Eamus, D

Impacts of future climate change on water resource availability of eastern Australia: A case study of the Manning River basin

Zhang, H

Wang, B

Liu, DL Zhang, M

Feng, P

Cheng, L

Yu, Q

Eamus, D

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Journal of Hydrology, 2019, 573 pp. 49 - 59
Issue Date:: 2019-06-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Zhang, H https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9369-7481	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Wang, B https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6422-5802	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Liu, DL	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Zhang, M https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5431-9274	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Feng, P https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4845-9876	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Cheng, L https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5298-9573	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Yu, Q https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6950-1821	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Eamus, D https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2765-8040	en_US
dc.date.available	2021-03-22T18:02:45Z
dc.date.issued	2019-06-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Journal of Hydrology, 2019, 573 pp. 49 - 59	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0022-1694	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/131516
dc.description.abstract	© 2019 Elsevier B.V. Hydrological responses of catchments to climate change require detailed examination to ensure sustainable management of both water resources and natural ecosystems. This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on water resource availability of a catchment in eastern Australia (i.e. the Manning River catchment) and analyzed climate-hydrology relationships. For this evaluation, the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model was used and validated to simulate monthly rainfall-runoff relationships of the catchment. Statistically downscaled climate data based on 28 global climate models (GCMs) under RCP8.5 scenarios were used to assess the impacts of climate changes on the Manning River catchment. Our results showed that the XAJ model was able to reproduce observed monthly rainfall-runoff relationships with an R 2 ≥ 0.94 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ≥0.92. The median estimates from the ensemble of downscaled GCM projections showed a slight decrease in annual rainfall and runoff for the period 2021–2060 and an increase for the period 2061–2100. Annual actual evapotranspiration was projected to increase slightly, while annual soil moisture content was predicted to decrease in the future. Our results also demonstrated that future changes in seasonal and annual runoff, actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture are largely dominated by changes in rainfall, with a smaller influence arising from changes in temperature. An increase in the values of high runoffs and a decrease in the values of low runoffs predicted from the ensemble of the 28 GCMs suggest increased variability of water resources at monthly and seasonal time-scales in the future. A trend of decreasing values in winter runoff and soil moisture content in the future is likely to aggravate possible future reductions in water availability in eastern Australia. These results contribute to the development of adaptive strategies and future policy options for the sustainable management of water resources in eastern Australia.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Journal of Hydrology	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.067	en_US
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess
dc.subject.classification	Environmental Engineering	en_US
dc.title	Impacts of future climate change on water resource availability of eastern Australia: A case study of the Manning River basin	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	573	en_US
utslib.for	0502 Environmental Science and Management	en_US
utslib.for	0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Life Sciences
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Students
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	573	en_US

Abstract:

© 2019 Elsevier B.V. Hydrological responses of catchments to climate change require detailed examination to ensure sustainable management of both water resources and natural ecosystems. This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on water resource availability of a catchment in eastern Australia (i.e. the Manning River catchment) and analyzed climate-hydrology relationships. For this evaluation, the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model was used and validated to simulate monthly rainfall-runoff relationships of the catchment. Statistically downscaled climate data based on 28 global climate models (GCMs) under RCP8.5 scenarios were used to assess the impacts of climate changes on the Manning River catchment. Our results showed that the XAJ model was able to reproduce observed monthly rainfall-runoff relationships with an R 2 ≥ 0.94 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ≥0.92. The median estimates from the ensemble of downscaled GCM projections showed a slight decrease in annual rainfall and runoff for the period 2021–2060 and an increase for the period 2061–2100. Annual actual evapotranspiration was projected to increase slightly, while annual soil moisture content was predicted to decrease in the future. Our results also demonstrated that future changes in seasonal and annual runoff, actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture are largely dominated by changes in rainfall, with a smaller influence arising from changes in temperature. An increase in the values of high runoffs and a decrease in the values of low runoffs predicted from the ensemble of the 28 GCMs suggest increased variability of water resources at monthly and seasonal time-scales in the future. A trend of decreasing values in winter runoff and soil moisture content in the future is likely to aggravate possible future reductions in water availability in eastern Australia. These results contribute to the development of adaptive strategies and future policy options for the sustainable management of water resources in eastern Australia.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/131516