Deriving an exact batting survival function in cricket

Publication Type:
Conference Proceeding
Citation:
2018
Issue Date:
2018
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This paper derives a general batting survival function from a minimalist set of assumptions, specifically taking into account that a different number of runs can be scored at each point of an innings. It is shown how this approaches a memoryless survival function at a moderately low score. The paper also shows that an estimate of the value of the underlying parameters can be derived from a batsman’s aggregated data summaries available from most common cricket databases. Finally the paper compares the theoretical survival function with those derived from product limit estimates (PLE) to reinforce both that the theoretical distribution is a good estimate of any underlying distribution, and that the whole PLE curve is useful for highlighting specific characteristics in the careers of individual batsmen.
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