Extreme rainfall, rainfall erosivity, and hillslope erosion in Australian Alpine region and their future changes

Zhu, Q; Yang, X; Ji, F; Liu, DL; Yu, Q

Extreme rainfall, rainfall erosivity, and hillslope erosion in Australian Alpine region and their future changes

Zhu, Q

Yang, X

Ji, F Liu, DL Yu, Q

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Publisher:: Wiley
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: International Journal of Climatology, 2020, 40, (2), pp. 1213-1227
Issue Date:: 2020-02-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Zhu, Q https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2371-4626
dc.contributor.author	Yang, X https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5990-2186
dc.contributor.author	Ji, F
dc.contributor.author	Liu, DL
dc.contributor.author	Yu, Q https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6950-1821
dc.date.accessioned	2020-11-26T04:37:37Z
dc.date.available	2020-11-26T04:37:37Z
dc.date.issued	2020-02-01
dc.identifier.citation	International Journal of Climatology, 2020, 40, (2), pp. 1213-1227
dc.identifier.issn	0899-8418
dc.identifier.issn	1097-0088
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/144378
dc.description.abstract	© 2019 Royal Meteorological Society The Australian Alpine region is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events such as heavy rainfall and snow falls, these events subsequently impact rainfall erosivity and hillslope erosion in the region. In this study, the relationship between extreme rainfall indices (ERIs) and rainfall erosivity was examined across the Alpine region in New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and the surrounding areas including Murray and Murrumbidgee and South East and Tablelands (SET). Rainfall erosivity, hillslope erosion, and their changes were estimated in the future periods using the revised universal soil loss equation and the NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modeling (NARCliM) projections. Results from the study demonstrate a good relationship between ERIs (especially Rx5Day) and rainfall erosivity. The rainfall erosivity and hillslope erosion are projected to increase about 2 and 8% for the near future (2020–2039), further increase to 8 and 18% for the far future (2060–2079) in the Alpine region assuming the groundcover is maintained at the current condition. The change in rainfall erosivity and erosion risk is highly uneven in space and in season with the highest erosion risk in summer with an increase about 33% in the next 50 years. The highest erosion risk area is predicted within SET (maximum rate 19.95 Mg ha−1 year−1), but on average, the ACT has the highest erosion rate, which is above 1.36 Mg ha−1 year−1 in all periods. The snowmelt in spring in the Alpine region is estimated to increase the rainfall erosivity by 13% in the baseline period, up to 24% in the near future, but far less (about 1%) in the far future due to predicted temperature rise and less snow available in the Alpine region in the next 50 years.
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	Wiley
dc.relation.ispartof	International Journal of Climatology
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1002/joc.6266
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.subject	0401 Atmospheric Sciences, 0905 Civil Engineering, 0907 Environmental Engineering
dc.subject.classification	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
dc.title	Extreme rainfall, rainfall erosivity, and hillslope erosion in Australian Alpine region and their future changes
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	40
utslib.for	0401 Atmospheric Sciences
utslib.for	0905 Civil Engineering
utslib.for	0907 Environmental Engineering
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Life Sciences
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access	*
pubs.consider-herdc	false
dc.date.updated	2020-11-26T04:37:13Z
pubs.issue	2
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	40
utslib.citation.issue	2

Abstract:

© 2019 Royal Meteorological Society The Australian Alpine region is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events such as heavy rainfall and snow falls, these events subsequently impact rainfall erosivity and hillslope erosion in the region. In this study, the relationship between extreme rainfall indices (ERIs) and rainfall erosivity was examined across the Alpine region in New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and the surrounding areas including Murray and Murrumbidgee and South East and Tablelands (SET). Rainfall erosivity, hillslope erosion, and their changes were estimated in the future periods using the revised universal soil loss equation and the NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modeling (NARCliM) projections. Results from the study demonstrate a good relationship between ERIs (especially Rx5Day) and rainfall erosivity. The rainfall erosivity and hillslope erosion are projected to increase about 2 and 8% for the near future (2020–2039), further increase to 8 and 18% for the far future (2060–2079) in the Alpine region assuming the groundcover is maintained at the current condition. The change in rainfall erosivity and erosion risk is highly uneven in space and in season with the highest erosion risk in summer with an increase about 33% in the next 50 years. The highest erosion risk area is predicted within SET (maximum rate 19.95 Mg ha−1 year−1), but on average, the ACT has the highest erosion rate, which is above 1.36 Mg ha−1 year−1 in all periods. The snowmelt in spring in the Alpine region is estimated to increase the rainfall erosivity by 13% in the baseline period, up to 24% in the near future, but far less (about 1%) in the far future due to predicted temperature rise and less snow available in the Alpine region in the next 50 years.

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