Assessing maize potential to mitigate the adverse effects of future rising temperature and heat stress in China
- Publisher:
- Elsevier BV
- Publication Type:
- Journal Article
- Citation:
- Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2021, 311, pp. 108673
- Issue Date:
- 2021-12-15
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| Filename | Description | Size | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-s2.0-S0168192321003592-main.pdf | Accepted version | 4.77 MB |
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Rising temperatures and frequent extreme high temperature events under future climate scenarios have posed pressing challenges with respect to global food security. Previous climate-crop modelling studies have investigated the impacts of rising temperature and heat stress on grain yield. However, the potential and priority of dealing with rising mean temperature or heat stress using genetically different cultivars have not been identified. We investigated the impacts of climate change on maize yield across China's Maize Belt (23°–48°N) using the CERES-Maize model driven by future climate scenarios under contrasting maize growing season temperatures of 18–24°C during the 2050s (2040–2069) and the 2080s (2070–2099). We also assessed the potential of different cultivars to adapt to rising temperatures and heat stress with an extreme hot global climate model from CMIP6 under a high emission scenario (SSP585). Our simulated results indicated that the shortened growth period resulting from rising temperatures, decreased photosynthesis caused by heat stress, and decreased grain-filling rate due to heat stress were the main reasons causing future maize (Zea mays L.) yield decreases in all subregions of China's Maize Belt. The priority applied to using a cultivar with a longer growth period or higher heat-tolerance to cope with climate warming depends on the particulars of the local climate and cropping system. Specifically, the potential for adapting to rising temperature is generally higher than the potential for adapting to heat stress in all subregions except the North China Plain (NCP) where the potential for adapting to heat stress is higher than the potential for adapting to rising temperature. Our study demonstrated the necessity of using cultivars with appropriate traits to alleviate the adverse effects of climate warming. Also, our findings provide important information for the direction and priority of future breeding in different climate regions with various cropping systems across China's Maize Belt.
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