The impact of the COVID-19, social distancing, and movement restrictions on crime in NSW, Australia.

Wang, JJJ; Fung, T; Weatherburn, D

The impact of the COVID-19, social distancing, and movement restrictions on crime in NSW, Australia.

Wang, JJJ Fung, T Weatherburn, D

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Publisher:: Springer
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Crime Science, 2021, 10, (1), pp. 1-14
Issue Date:: 2021

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Wang, JJJ
dc.contributor.author	Fung, T
dc.contributor.author	Weatherburn, D
dc.date.accessioned	2022-02-15T03:39:14Z
dc.date.available	2021-10-17
dc.date.available	2022-02-15T03:39:14Z
dc.date.issued	2021
dc.identifier.citation	Crime Science, 2021, 10, (1), pp. 1-14
dc.identifier.issn	2193-7680
dc.identifier.issn	2193-7680
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/154526
dc.description.abstract	The spread of COVID-19 has prompted Governments around the world to impose draconian restrictions on business activity, public transport, and public freedom of movement. The effect of these restrictions appears to vary from country to country and, in some cases, from one area to another within a country. This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 restrictions imposed in New South Wales (NSW) by the State Government. We examine week-to-week changes in 13 categories of crime (and four aggregated categories) from 2 January 2017 to 28 June 2020. Rather than using the pre-intervention data to make a forecast and then comparing that with what is actually observed, we use a Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) approach to model the entire time series. Our results are broadly in accord with those of other studies, but we find no effect of the lockdown (upward or downward) on domestic assault. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x.
dc.format	Print-Electronic
dc.language	eng
dc.publisher	Springer
dc.relation.ispartof	Crime Science
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.title	The impact of the COVID-19, social distancing, and movement restrictions on crime in NSW, Australia.
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	10
utslib.location.activity	Germany
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
pubs.consider-herdc	false
dc.date.updated	2022-02-15T03:39:09Z
pubs.issue	1
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	10
utslib.citation.issue	1

Abstract:

The spread of COVID-19 has prompted Governments around the world to impose draconian restrictions on business activity, public transport, and public freedom of movement. The effect of these restrictions appears to vary from country to country and, in some cases, from one area to another within a country. This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 restrictions imposed in New South Wales (NSW) by the State Government. We examine week-to-week changes in 13 categories of crime (and four aggregated categories) from 2 January 2017 to 28 June 2020. Rather than using the pre-intervention data to make a forecast and then comparing that with what is actually observed, we use a Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) approach to model the entire time series. Our results are broadly in accord with those of other studies, but we find no effect of the lockdown (upward or downward) on domestic assault. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/154526