Long-term increase in growth of an estuarine predator, mulloway Argyrosomus japonicus, predicted to continue under future warming scenarios

Nicolle, P; Hughes, J; Fowler, A; Schilling, HT

Long-term increase in growth of an estuarine predator, mulloway Argyrosomus japonicus, predicted to continue under future warming scenarios

Nicolle, P Hughes, J Fowler, A Schilling, HT

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Publisher:: Inter-Research Science Center
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2022, 688, pp. 1-17
Issue Date:: 2022-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Nicolle, P
dc.contributor.author	Hughes, J
dc.contributor.author	Fowler, A
dc.contributor.author	Schilling, HT
dc.date.accessioned	2023-02-01T05:07:52Z
dc.date.available	2023-02-01T05:07:52Z
dc.date.issued	2022-01-01
dc.identifier.citation	Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2022, 688, pp. 1-17
dc.identifier.issn	0171-8630
dc.identifier.issn	1616-1599
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/165787
dc.description.abstract	Understanding the effects of climate change on fish biology and ecology is crucial for effective management of fisheries resources. Estuaries are warming at a faster rate than nearby oceans in south-eastern Australia, yet there is little understanding of how this may impact the growth of estuarine fish. We examined long-term changes and drivers of growth in an ecologically and economically important estuarine fish in this region, the mulloway Argyrosomus japonicus, using a growth chronology spanning 39 yr (1980−2018). The chronology was developed using 3112 otoliths collected over 12° of latitude. Mixed effects models identified a long-term increase in the growth rate of A. japonicus spanning nearly 3 decades in south-eastern Australia and a positive growth response to temperature. Temperature during the months of November−February best explained this growth response, likely representing a specific growing season for the species. However, there also remained some variation in growth not explained by increasing temperature over the period. We also found evidence of faster growth in individuals sampled at both younger and older ages, potentially caused by selectivity mechanisms. Regional climate forecasts predict that, based upon the observed response to temperature, the mean annual growth rate of A. japonicus in south-eastern Australia may increase by up to 8.9% by 2099. These results add to the growing body of literature demonstrating positive growth responses by marine species in warming environments and highlight the value of understanding the drivers of long-term growth variation in exploited fish stocks in order to predict future productivity under a range of environmental and fisheries management scenarios.
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Inter-Research Science Center
dc.relation.ispartof	Marine Ecology Progress Series
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.3354/meps14048
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject	0405 Oceanography, 0602 Ecology, 0608 Zoology
dc.subject.classification	Marine Biology & Hydrobiology
dc.title	Long-term increase in growth of an estuarine predator, mulloway Argyrosomus japonicus, predicted to continue under future warming scenarios
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	688
utslib.for	0405 Oceanography
utslib.for	0602 Ecology
utslib.for	0608 Zoology
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Life Sciences
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.date.updated	2023-02-01T05:07:51Z
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	688

Abstract:

Understanding the effects of climate change on fish biology and ecology is crucial for effective management of fisheries resources. Estuaries are warming at a faster rate than nearby oceans in south-eastern Australia, yet there is little understanding of how this may impact the growth of estuarine fish. We examined long-term changes and drivers of growth in an ecologically and economically important estuarine fish in this region, the mulloway Argyrosomus japonicus, using a growth chronology spanning 39 yr (1980−2018). The chronology was developed using 3112 otoliths collected over 12° of latitude. Mixed effects models identified a long-term increase in the growth rate of A. japonicus spanning nearly 3 decades in south-eastern Australia and a positive growth response to temperature. Temperature during the months of November−February best explained this growth response, likely representing a specific growing season for the species. However, there also remained some variation in growth not explained by increasing temperature over the period. We also found evidence of faster growth in individuals sampled at both younger and older ages, potentially caused by selectivity mechanisms. Regional climate forecasts predict that, based upon the observed response to temperature, the mean annual growth rate of A. japonicus in south-eastern Australia may increase by up to 8.9% by 2099. These results add to the growing body of literature demonstrating positive growth responses by marine species in warming environments and highlight the value of understanding the drivers of long-term growth variation in exploited fish stocks in order to predict future productivity under a range of environmental and fisheries management scenarios.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/165787