A Hyperbolic Bid Stack Approach to Electricity Price Modelling

Publication Type:
Journal Article
Risks, 2022, 11, (8), pp. 147-147
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Modelling the energy price in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) requires features that are not well reflected in existing models. We present a semi-structural, multi-regional model wherein bidding is not required to be cost-based, renewable fuels and storage technology are structurally integrated, and network constraints are often binding in optimal dispatch. Available fuel capacity then does not necessarily sum to registered bid capacity, as-bid fuel costs do not dependably follow input fuel prices, and cross-regional interconnectedness requires modelling trade. Furthermore, modelling the NEM spot price path must admit price negativity and price spikes. Extending previous work in the literature, the present paper proposes a hyperbolic bid stack approach to price modelling under these conditions.
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