Attribution of air temperature and precipitation to the future global drought events

Fu, R; Wang, C; Ma, D; Gu, H; Xie, Q; Liu, G; Yin, G

Attribution of air temperature and precipitation to the future global drought events

Fu, R Wang, C Ma, D Gu, H Xie, Q

Liu, G Yin, G

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Publisher:: IOP Publishing
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Environmental Research Communications, 2023, 5, (6), pp. 061005
Issue Date:: 2023-06-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Fu, R
dc.contributor.author	Wang, C
dc.contributor.author	Ma, D
dc.contributor.author	Gu, H
dc.contributor.author	Xie, Q https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1576-6610
dc.contributor.author	Liu, G
dc.contributor.author	Yin, G
dc.date.accessioned	2024-01-12T04:57:10Z
dc.date.available	2024-01-12T04:57:10Z
dc.date.issued	2023-06-01
dc.identifier.citation	Environmental Research Communications, 2023, 5, (6), pp. 061005
dc.identifier.issn	2515-7620
dc.identifier.issn	2515-7620
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/174376
dc.description.abstract	Quantifying the contributions of air temperature and precipitation changes to drought events can inform decision-makers to mitigate the impact of droughts while existing studies focused mainly on long-term dryness trends. Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we analyzed the changes in drought events and separated the contributions of air temperature and precipitation to the risk of future drought events. We found that drought frequency, duration, severity, and month will increase in the future (56.4%, 63.5%, 82.9%, and 58.2% of the global land area in SSP245, and 58.1%, 67.7%, 85.8%, and 60.5% of the global land area in SSP585, respectively). The intermediate scenario has a similar pattern to the most extreme scenario, but low emission was found to mitigate drought risk. Globally, we found that air temperature will have a greater impact than precipitation on intensifying drought. Increasing precipitation will mitigate drought risks in some middle and high northern latitudes, whilst the trend in increasing air temperature will counter the effects of precipitation and increase the impact of droughts. Our study improves the understanding of the dynamics of future devastating drought events and informs the decision-making of stakeholders.
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	IOP Publishing
dc.relation.ispartof	Environmental Research Communications
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1088/2515-7620/acde37
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject.classification	37 Earth sciences
dc.subject.classification	41 Environmental sciences
dc.title	Attribution of air temperature and precipitation to the future global drought events
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	5
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Life Sciences
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CAMGIS - Centre for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial lnformation Systems
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.date.updated	2024-01-12T04:57:08Z
pubs.issue	6
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	5
utslib.citation.issue	6

Abstract:

Quantifying the contributions of air temperature and precipitation changes to drought events can inform decision-makers to mitigate the impact of droughts while existing studies focused mainly on long-term dryness trends. Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we analyzed the changes in drought events and separated the contributions of air temperature and precipitation to the risk of future drought events. We found that drought frequency, duration, severity, and month will increase in the future (56.4%, 63.5%, 82.9%, and 58.2% of the global land area in SSP245, and 58.1%, 67.7%, 85.8%, and 60.5% of the global land area in SSP585, respectively). The intermediate scenario has a similar pattern to the most extreme scenario, but low emission was found to mitigate drought risk. Globally, we found that air temperature will have a greater impact than precipitation on intensifying drought. Increasing precipitation will mitigate drought risks in some middle and high northern latitudes, whilst the trend in increasing air temperature will counter the effects of precipitation and increase the impact of droughts. Our study improves the understanding of the dynamics of future devastating drought events and informs the decision-making of stakeholders.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/174376