Climate-driven land surface phenology advance is overestimated due to ignoring land cover changes

Pan, Y; Peng, D; Chen, JM; Myneni, RB; Zhang, X; Huete, AR; Fu, YH; Zheng, S; Yan, K; Yu, L; Zhu, P; Shen, M; Ju, W; Zhu, W; Xie, Q; Huang, W; Chen, Z; Huang, J; Wu, C

Climate-driven land surface phenology advance is overestimated due to ignoring land cover changes

Pan, Y Peng, D Chen, JM Myneni, RB Zhang, X Huete, AR Fu, YH Zheng, S Yan, K Yu, L Zhu, P Shen, M Ju, W Zhu, W Xie, Q

Huang, W Chen, Z Huang, J Wu, C

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Publisher:: IOP Publishing Ltd
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, 18, (4)
Issue Date:: 2023-04-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Pan, Y
dc.contributor.author	Peng, D
dc.contributor.author	Chen, JM
dc.contributor.author	Myneni, RB
dc.contributor.author	Zhang, X
dc.contributor.author	Huete, AR
dc.contributor.author	Fu, YH
dc.contributor.author	Zheng, S
dc.contributor.author	Yan, K
dc.contributor.author	Yu, L
dc.contributor.author	Zhu, P
dc.contributor.author	Shen, M
dc.contributor.author	Ju, W
dc.contributor.author	Zhu, W
dc.contributor.author	Xie, Q https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1576-6610
dc.contributor.author	Huang, W
dc.contributor.author	Chen, Z
dc.contributor.author	Huang, J
dc.contributor.author	Wu, C
dc.date.accessioned	2024-01-12T05:00:54Z
dc.date.available	2024-01-12T05:00:54Z
dc.date.issued	2023-04-01
dc.identifier.citation	Environmental Research Letters, 2023, 18, (4)
dc.identifier.issn	1748-9318
dc.identifier.issn	1748-9326
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/174377
dc.description.abstract	Global warming has led to earlier spring green-up dates (GUDs) in recent decades with significant consequences for global carbon and hydrologic cycles. In addition to changes in climate, land cover change (LCC), including interchanges between vegetation and non-vegetation, and among plants with different functional traits, may also affect GUD. Here, we analyzed how satellite-derived GUD from 1992 to 2020 was impacted by changes in temperature, precipitation, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), solar radiation, and LCC for the Northern Hemisphere (>30° N). While the climate variables had larger impact overall, variability in GUD was controlled by LCC for 6% of the Northern Hemisphere, with systematically earlier or later changes among transitions between different land cover types. These changes were found mainly along the southeastern coast of the United States, in Central-north Europe, and across northeastern China. We further showed that climate change attribution of earlier GUD during 1992-2020 was overestimated by three days when the impact of LCC was ignored. Our results deepen the understanding of how LCC impacts GUD variability and enables scientists to more accurately evaluate the impact of climate change on land surface phenology.
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	IOP Publishing Ltd
dc.relation.ispartof	Environmental Research Letters
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1088/1748-9326/acca34
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject.classification	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
dc.title	Climate-driven land surface phenology advance is overestimated due to ignoring land cover changes
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	18
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Life Sciences
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CAMGIS - Centre for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial lnformation Systems
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.date.updated	2024-01-12T05:00:52Z
pubs.issue	4
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	18
utslib.citation.issue	4

Abstract:

Global warming has led to earlier spring green-up dates (GUDs) in recent decades with significant consequences for global carbon and hydrologic cycles. In addition to changes in climate, land cover change (LCC), including interchanges between vegetation and non-vegetation, and among plants with different functional traits, may also affect GUD. Here, we analyzed how satellite-derived GUD from 1992 to 2020 was impacted by changes in temperature, precipitation, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), solar radiation, and LCC for the Northern Hemisphere (>30° N). While the climate variables had larger impact overall, variability in GUD was controlled by LCC for 6% of the Northern Hemisphere, with systematically earlier or later changes among transitions between different land cover types. These changes were found mainly along the southeastern coast of the United States, in Central-north Europe, and across northeastern China. We further showed that climate change attribution of earlier GUD during 1992-2020 was overestimated by three days when the impact of LCC was ignored. Our results deepen the understanding of how LCC impacts GUD variability and enables scientists to more accurately evaluate the impact of climate change on land surface phenology.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/174377