The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

O’Sullivan, M; Sitch, S; Friedlingstein, P; Luijkx, IT; Peters, W; Rosan, TM; Arneth, A; Arora, VK; Chandra, N; Chevallier, F; Ciais, P; Falk, S; Feng, L; Gasser, T; Houghton, RA; Jain, AK; Kato, E; Kennedy, D; Knauer, J; McGrath, MJ; Niwa, Y; Palmer, PI; Patra, PK; Pongratz, J; Poulter, B; Rödenbeck, C; Schwingshackl, C; Sun, Q; Tian, H; Walker, AP; Yang, D; Yuan, W; Yue, X; Zaehle, S

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

O’Sullivan, M Sitch, S Friedlingstein, P Luijkx, IT Peters, W Rosan, TM Arneth, A Arora, VK Chandra, N Chevallier, F Ciais, P Falk, S Feng, L Gasser, T Houghton, RA Jain, AK Kato, E Kennedy, D Knauer, J

McGrath, MJ Niwa, Y Palmer, PI Patra, PK Pongratz, J Poulter, B Rödenbeck, C Schwingshackl, C Sun, Q Tian, H Walker, AP Yang, D Yuan, W Yue, X Zaehle, S

Permalink

Publisher:: SPRINGERNATURE
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Communications Earth and Environment, 2024, 5, (1)
Issue Date:: 2024-12-01

Recently Added

	Filename	Description	Size
	s43247-024-01827-4.pdf	Published version	4.46 MB		View/Open

Copyright Clearance Process

Recently Added
In Progress
Open Access

This item is new to OPUS and is not currently available.

Full metadata record

Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	O’Sullivan, M
dc.contributor.author	Sitch, S
dc.contributor.author	Friedlingstein, P
dc.contributor.author	Luijkx, IT
dc.contributor.author	Peters, W
dc.contributor.author	Rosan, TM
dc.contributor.author	Arneth, A
dc.contributor.author	Arora, VK
dc.contributor.author	Chandra, N
dc.contributor.author	Chevallier, F
dc.contributor.author	Ciais, P
dc.contributor.author	Falk, S
dc.contributor.author	Feng, L
dc.contributor.author	Gasser, T
dc.contributor.author	Houghton, RA
dc.contributor.author	Jain, AK
dc.contributor.author	Kato, E
dc.contributor.author	Kennedy, D
dc.contributor.author	Knauer, J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4947-7067
dc.contributor.author	McGrath, MJ
dc.contributor.author	Niwa, Y
dc.contributor.author	Palmer, PI
dc.contributor.author	Patra, PK
dc.contributor.author	Pongratz, J
dc.contributor.author	Poulter, B
dc.contributor.author	Rödenbeck, C
dc.contributor.author	Schwingshackl, C
dc.contributor.author	Sun, Q
dc.contributor.author	Tian, H
dc.contributor.author	Walker, AP
dc.contributor.author	Yang, D
dc.contributor.author	Yuan, W
dc.contributor.author	Yue, X
dc.contributor.author	Zaehle, S
dc.date.accessioned	2025-01-29T03:29:13Z
dc.date.available	2025-01-29T03:29:13Z
dc.date.issued	2024-12-01
dc.identifier.citation	Communications Earth and Environment, 2024, 5, (1)
dc.identifier.issn	2662-4435
dc.identifier.issn	2662-4435
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/184577
dc.description.abstract	Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	SPRINGERNATURE
dc.relation.ispartof	Communications Earth and Environment
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1038/s43247-024-01827-4
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess
dc.subject.classification	37 Earth sciences
dc.subject.classification	41 Environmental sciences
dc.title	The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	5
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Life Sciences
utslib.copyright.status	recently_added	*
dc.rights.license	This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.date.updated	2025-01-29T03:29:12Z
pubs.issue	1
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	5
utslib.citation.issue	1

Abstract:

Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10453/184577