Counterintuitive Range Shifts May Be Explained by Climate Induced Changes in Biotic Interactions.

Osmolovsky, I; Xirocostas, ZA; Chiarenza, GM; Moles, AT

Counterintuitive Range Shifts May Be Explained by Climate Induced Changes in Biotic Interactions.

Osmolovsky, I Xirocostas, ZA Chiarenza, GM Moles, AT

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Publisher:: WILEY
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Glob Chang Biol, 2025, 31, (7), pp. e70332
Issue Date:: 2025-07

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Osmolovsky, I
dc.contributor.author	Xirocostas, ZA
dc.contributor.author	Chiarenza, GM
dc.contributor.author	Moles, AT
dc.date.accessioned	2025-07-25T02:25:33Z
dc.date.available	2025-06-21
dc.date.available	2025-07-25T02:25:33Z
dc.date.issued	2025-07
dc.identifier.citation	Glob Chang Biol, 2025, 31, (7), pp. e70332
dc.identifier.issn	1354-1013
dc.identifier.issn	1365-2486
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/188835
dc.description.abstract	Many organisms are expected to shift their ranges uphill, toward the poles or to deeper waters in response to climate change. However, over a third of species exhibit counterintuitive range shifts-toward the equator, downhill or to shallower waters. Despite the prevalence and potential importance of counterintuitive shifts, they are seldom predicted by the species distribution models on which conservation decisions often rely, and we have remarkably few hypotheses as to why species might exhibit counterintuitive shifts. To address this, we propose the 'Interaction Opportunists Hypothesis', which formalises the idea that counterintuitive shifts could arise from climate change induced changes in biotic interactions at the warm edge of species' distributions. Reductions in antagonistic interactions, increases in positive interactions or changes in the type or outcome of biotic interactions could make previously unsuitable habitats viable parts of a species' range. Biotic interactions may additionally drive lags in range shifts and the persistence of some species in current habitats despite the changing climate. Understanding the role of biotic interactions is thus crucial for improving forecasting of the rate, direction and vulnerability of range shifting species, aiding conservation and climate mitigation efforts. Our hypothesis provides a generalisable framework to explain counterintuitive shifts across diverse systems and contexts.
dc.format	Print
dc.language	eng
dc.publisher	WILEY
dc.relation.ispartof	Glob Chang Biol
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1111/gcb.70332
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject	05 Environmental Sciences, 06 Biological Sciences
dc.subject.classification	Ecology
dc.subject.classification	31 Biological sciences
dc.subject.classification	37 Earth sciences
dc.subject.classification	41 Environmental sciences
dc.subject.mesh	Climate Change
dc.subject.mesh	Ecosystem
dc.subject.mesh	Animal Distribution
dc.subject.mesh	Animals
dc.subject.mesh	Models, Biological
dc.subject.mesh	Animals
dc.subject.mesh	Ecosystem
dc.subject.mesh	Models, Biological
dc.subject.mesh	Climate Change
dc.subject.mesh	Animal Distribution
dc.subject.mesh	Climate Change
dc.subject.mesh	Ecosystem
dc.subject.mesh	Animal Distribution
dc.subject.mesh	Animals
dc.subject.mesh	Models, Biological
dc.title	Counterintuitive Range Shifts May Be Explained by Climate Induced Changes in Biotic Interactions.
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	31
utslib.location.activity	England
utslib.for	05 Environmental Sciences
utslib.for	06 Biological Sciences
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Life Sciences
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.rights.license	This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.date.updated	2025-07-25T02:25:29Z
pubs.issue	7
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	31
utslib.citation.issue	7

Abstract:

Many organisms are expected to shift their ranges uphill, toward the poles or to deeper waters in response to climate change. However, over a third of species exhibit counterintuitive range shifts-toward the equator, downhill or to shallower waters. Despite the prevalence and potential importance of counterintuitive shifts, they are seldom predicted by the species distribution models on which conservation decisions often rely, and we have remarkably few hypotheses as to why species might exhibit counterintuitive shifts. To address this, we propose the 'Interaction Opportunists Hypothesis', which formalises the idea that counterintuitive shifts could arise from climate change induced changes in biotic interactions at the warm edge of species' distributions. Reductions in antagonistic interactions, increases in positive interactions or changes in the type or outcome of biotic interactions could make previously unsuitable habitats viable parts of a species' range. Biotic interactions may additionally drive lags in range shifts and the persistence of some species in current habitats despite the changing climate. Understanding the role of biotic interactions is thus crucial for improving forecasting of the rate, direction and vulnerability of range shifting species, aiding conservation and climate mitigation efforts. Our hypothesis provides a generalisable framework to explain counterintuitive shifts across diverse systems and contexts.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/188835