Modelling the response of wheat grain yield to climate change: A sensitivity analysis

Luo, Q; Kathuria, A

Modelling the response of wheat grain yield to climate change: A sensitivity analysis

Luo, Q Kathuria, A

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2013, 111 (1-2), pp. 173 - 182
Issue Date:: 2013-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Luo, Q	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Kathuria, A	en_US
dc.date.issued	2013-01-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2013, 111 (1-2), pp. 173 - 182	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0177-798X	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/23980
dc.description.abstract	The Agricultural Production System Simulator-Wheat model was used to test the sensitivity of wheat cropping system in NSW to a range of changes in temperature, rainfall and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration based on wheat cultivars Sunvale and Janz under two extreme soil types (kandosol and sand) at six locations. Seven change levels (from 0 to 6°C at an interval of 1°C) in temperature, five change levels (from -20 to 20 % at an interval of 10 %) in rainfall and three change levels (0, 171 and 316 ppm) in atmospheric pCO2 were taken into account. It was found that there was a negative relationship between median grain yield and temperature while there were positive correlations of median grain yield with atmospheric pCO2 and rainfall across all locations and soils considered. It was also found that the rate of decrease in median grain yield was more for higher temperatures in contrast to lower temperatures, and the rate of increase in median grain yield was less for higher rainfall and pCO2 compared with the lower levels of these two variables. This study showed that environmental factors have significant effects on wheat grain yield, with soil as the most important factor, followed by site (reflecting both soil and climate), changes in atmospheric CO2, rainfall and temperature. This study also showed that rainfall was more important under sandy soil conditions than under kandosol soil conditions. These findings provided a sound basis for preliminary scoping and prioritising adaptation options. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Theoretical and Applied Climatology	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1007/s00704-012-0655-5	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences	en_US
dc.title	Modelling the response of wheat grain yield to climate change: A sensitivity analysis	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	1-2	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	111	en_US
utslib.for	0401 Atmospheric Sciences	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.issue	1-2	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	111	en_US

Abstract:

The Agricultural Production System Simulator-Wheat model was used to test the sensitivity of wheat cropping system in NSW to a range of changes in temperature, rainfall and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration based on wheat cultivars Sunvale and Janz under two extreme soil types (kandosol and sand) at six locations. Seven change levels (from 0 to 6°C at an interval of 1°C) in temperature, five change levels (from -20 to 20 % at an interval of 10 %) in rainfall and three change levels (0, 171 and 316 ppm) in atmospheric pCO2 were taken into account. It was found that there was a negative relationship between median grain yield and temperature while there were positive correlations of median grain yield with atmospheric pCO2 and rainfall across all locations and soils considered. It was also found that the rate of decrease in median grain yield was more for higher temperatures in contrast to lower temperatures, and the rate of increase in median grain yield was less for higher rainfall and pCO2 compared with the lower levels of these two variables. This study showed that environmental factors have significant effects on wheat grain yield, with soil as the most important factor, followed by site (reflecting both soil and climate), changes in atmospheric CO2, rainfall and temperature. This study also showed that rainfall was more important under sandy soil conditions than under kandosol soil conditions. These findings provided a sound basis for preliminary scoping and prioritising adaptation options. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/23980