Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961-2003

Chen, C; Baethgen, WE; Robertson, A

Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961-2003

Chen, C Baethgen, WE Robertson, A

Permalink

Publisher:: Springer
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Climatic Change, 2013, 116 (3-4), pp. 767 - 788
Issue Date:: 2013-01

Closed Access

	Filename	Description	Size
	2012004734OK.pdf		936.98 kB	Adobe PDF	View/Open

Copyright Clearance Process

Recently Added
In Progress
Closed Access

This item is closed access and not available.

Full metadata record

Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Chen, C	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Baethgen, WE	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Robertson, A	en_US
dc.date.issued	2013-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Climatic Change, 2013, 116 (3-4), pp. 767 - 788	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0165-0009	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/27818
dc.description.abstract	An understanding of the relative impacts of the changes in climate variables on crop yield can help develop effective adaptation strategies to cope with climate change. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of the interannual variability and trends in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation during 19612003 on wheat and maize yields in a double cropping system at Beijing and Zhengzhou in the North China Plain (NCP), and to examine the relative contributions of each climate variable in isolation. 129 climate scenarios consisting of all the combinations of these climate variables were constructed. Each scenario contained 43 years of observed values of one variable, combined with values of the other two variables from each individual year repeated 43 times. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to simulate crop yields using the ensemble of generated climate scenarios. The results showed that the warming trend during the study period did not have significant impact on wheat yield potential at both sites, and only had significant negative impact on maize yield potential at Beijing. This is in contrast with previous results on effect of warming. The decreasing trend in solar radiation had a much greater impact on simulated yields of both wheat and maize crops, causing a significant reduction in potential yield of wheat and maize at Beijing. Although decreasing trends in rainfed yield of both simulated wheat and maize were found, the substantial interannual variability of precipitation made the trends less prominent	en_US
dc.publisher	Springer	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Climatic Change	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1007/s10584-012-0509-2	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences	en_US
dc.title	Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961-2003	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	3-4	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	116	en_US
utslib.for	0602 Ecology	en_US
utslib.for	0703 Crop and Pasture Production	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.consider-herdc	false	en_US
pubs.issue	3-4	en_US
pubs.volume	116	en_US

Abstract:

An understanding of the relative impacts of the changes in climate variables on crop yield can help develop effective adaptation strategies to cope with climate change. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of the interannual variability and trends in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation during 19612003 on wheat and maize yields in a double cropping system at Beijing and Zhengzhou in the North China Plain (NCP), and to examine the relative contributions of each climate variable in isolation. 129 climate scenarios consisting of all the combinations of these climate variables were constructed. Each scenario contained 43 years of observed values of one variable, combined with values of the other two variables from each individual year repeated 43 times. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to simulate crop yields using the ensemble of generated climate scenarios. The results showed that the warming trend during the study period did not have significant impact on wheat yield potential at both sites, and only had significant negative impact on maize yield potential at Beijing. This is in contrast with previous results on effect of warming. The decreasing trend in solar radiation had a much greater impact on simulated yields of both wheat and maize crops, causing a significant reduction in potential yield of wheat and maize at Beijing. Although decreasing trends in rainfed yield of both simulated wheat and maize were found, the substantial interannual variability of precipitation made the trends less prominent

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10453/27818