当代中国期货公司发展的政治经济学分析 = The political economy of futures companies in contemporary China
- Publication Type:
- Thesis
- Issue Date:
- 2012
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这是系统论述当代中国期货市场和期货公司发展轨迹的第一部学术专著。期货公司的正常发展需要什么样的政治法律框架？中央与地方政府在期货市场发展中分别扮演何种角色？未来的期货公司究竟是作为一个大的金融控股集团的子公司或职能部门，还是走独立发展之路？期货公司是发展成为全能型期货商还是成为专业的职能型期货商？这些都是当今中国每家期货公司面对且亟待解决的问题。此方面的专题研究在中国尚属首次，希望本研究能成为有益的尝试。
本课题采用对比分析和实证分析相结合的研究方法，以诺斯等人的制度变迁理论为指导，在当前的政策背景下对中国期货公司发展模式进行研究。通过利用丰富的法规文献、统计数据和参与观察对中国期货市场和期货公司制度变迁的深入实证研究，分析中国期货公司发展现状及其成因；利用哈恩的交易费用均衡模型，分析中国当前制度发展模式的不均衡状态，并通过对交易费用计量的实证分析和对全球成熟期货市场中期货公司发展模式和中国期货公司发展模式的对比分析，提出中国期货公司的优化发展模式和更为合理的制度安排。
在应用价值层面，本研究探讨了中国期货市场强制性制度变迁转变为诱致性制度变迁的条件、动力和前景，并利用SWOT分析法为各类不同性质的期货公司设计出相关的发展路径。
本课题的目的和意义就在于从政治经济学的角度，通过对全球市场期货公司发展模式的比较研究，分析中国期货公司发展的可能路径，并对中国期货公司的发展模式进行探讨和研究，以求为中国期货公司摆脱目前的困局提供解决的方法和途径。
本人结合十几年的从业经验，借鉴证券市场和国际期货市场的先进经验，提出了制度变迁的目标，希望有助于提高中国期货公司的整体竞争能力，促进期货市场的功能发挥，以有助于中国期货市场的稳健发展。
This is the first book-length study in a systematic way on the development of the futures market and futures companies in contemporary China. It addresses the pressing key issues in the development of the futures market and futures companies, such as the suitable legal-political framework for the development of futures companies, the proper roles played by the central government and local governments in the development of the futures market, and whether the futures companies should seek independent development or operate as subsidiaries of financial corporation groups. The preliminary findings in the thesis have made some ground-breaking contributions to the emerging field of research on the development of the futures market and futures companies in contemporary China.
Guided by North's Theory of Institutional Change, this thesis takes a comparative approach with rich data of laws, regulations, statistics and participation observation and provides a thorough analysis on the factors shaping the development of the futures market and futures companies in China today. With reference to Hahn's Model of Equilibrium with Transaction Costs, this thesis identifies major inadequacies in the institutional arrangements for the development of futures companies in contemporary China and proposes the optimal model and institutional arrangements for the healthy development of the futures market and futures companies in China's particular context.
At the practical level, based on in-depth analysis on the conditions, driving forces and possibilities, this thesis explores the feasible way for the transition from the forced institutional change to the inducing institutional change in the development of the futures market and futures companies in China. Through SWOT analysis, this thesis also offers concrete recommendations for individual futures companies in different categories in China to deal with their problems and overcome current difficulties.
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