Climatology of Philippine tropical cyclone activity: 1945–2011

Corporal-Lodangco, IL; Leslie, LM

Climatology of Philippine tropical cyclone activity: 1945–2011

Corporal-Lodangco, IL Leslie, LM

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: International Journal of Climatology, 2017, 37 (9), pp. 3525 - 3539
Issue Date:: 2017-07-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Corporal-Lodangco, IL	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Leslie, LM https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5616-2330	en_US
dc.date.issued	2017-07-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	International Journal of Climatology, 2017, 37 (9), pp. 3525 - 3539	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0899-8418	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/123743
dc.description.abstract	© 2016 Royal Meteorological Society The Philippine region occupies the southwestern western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean, between 5°–25°N and 115°–135°E. About 70% of WNP tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in or entered the Philippine region during 1945–2011. Here, a climatology of Philippine TC metrics is developed, including mean annual frequencies, landfalls, TC days, season lengths, season earliest and latest start and end dates, genesis locations, and tracks. Two distinct TC seasons, the less active season (LAS; 1 January–31 May) and more active season (MAS; 1 June–31 December), are evident. Philippine TC annual median LAS frequency is 2 [interquartile range (IQR) is 2], and median landfalling frequency is 1. The annual median MAS frequency is 15 (IQR is 4.5), and median landfalling frequency is 6. About 55% of Philippine TCs reach typhoon intensity. A quiescent (TC-free) period occurs between LAS and MAS, ranging from 2 days to 5 months (median 1.2 months) for LAS to MAS transitions, and 6 days to 7 months (median 2.85 months) for MAS to LAS transitions. The interannual variability of the annual average lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) for all TCs and landfalling TCs decreased slightly during the satellite era (the years since 1980). The TC annual average latitude of LMI in the satellite era exhibits a poleward migration; however, for landfalling TCs it is equatorward. Wavelet analysis shows El Niño Southern Oscillation as the dominant mode affecting Philippine TCs, consistent with other studies. The wavelet analysis also indicates possible decadal and multi-decadal modes. In El Niño years, TCs frequently recurve or decay before reaching the Philippine region, producing below normal numbers and landfalls in LAS and MAS. In La Niña years, TC numbers and landfalls are below normal in January–March and July–September, but above normal in April–June and October–December. The climatology developed here has social and economic relevance: allowing planning, providing early risk assessment, and mitigating impacts through timely preparation and management.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	International Journal of Climatology	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1002/joc.4931	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences	en_US
dc.title	Climatology of Philippine tropical cyclone activity: 1945–2011	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	9	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	37	en_US
utslib.for	0401 Atmospheric Sciences	en_US
utslib.for	0905 Civil Engineering	en_US
utslib.for	0907 Environmental Engineering	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Science/School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
utslib.copyright.status	open_access
pubs.issue	9	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	37	en_US

Abstract:

© 2016 Royal Meteorological Society The Philippine region occupies the southwestern western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean, between 5°–25°N and 115°–135°E. About 70% of WNP tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in or entered the Philippine region during 1945–2011. Here, a climatology of Philippine TC metrics is developed, including mean annual frequencies, landfalls, TC days, season lengths, season earliest and latest start and end dates, genesis locations, and tracks. Two distinct TC seasons, the less active season (LAS; 1 January–31 May) and more active season (MAS; 1 June–31 December), are evident. Philippine TC annual median LAS frequency is 2 [interquartile range (IQR) is 2], and median landfalling frequency is 1. The annual median MAS frequency is 15 (IQR is 4.5), and median landfalling frequency is 6. About 55% of Philippine TCs reach typhoon intensity. A quiescent (TC-free) period occurs between LAS and MAS, ranging from 2 days to 5 months (median 1.2 months) for LAS to MAS transitions, and 6 days to 7 months (median 2.85 months) for MAS to LAS transitions. The interannual variability of the annual average lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) for all TCs and landfalling TCs decreased slightly during the satellite era (the years since 1980). The TC annual average latitude of LMI in the satellite era exhibits a poleward migration; however, for landfalling TCs it is equatorward. Wavelet analysis shows El Niño Southern Oscillation as the dominant mode affecting Philippine TCs, consistent with other studies. The wavelet analysis also indicates possible decadal and multi-decadal modes. In El Niño years, TCs frequently recurve or decay before reaching the Philippine region, producing below normal numbers and landfalls in LAS and MAS. In La Niña years, TC numbers and landfalls are below normal in January–March and July–September, but above normal in April–June and October–December. The climatology developed here has social and economic relevance: allowing planning, providing early risk assessment, and mitigating impacts through timely preparation and management.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/123743